Analysts Value Sabadell High, Pressuring BBVA Offer

Analysts Urge BBVA to Boost Sabadell Offer as Key Deadline Looms

As The clock ticks down on BBVA’s (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya argentaria, S.A.) takeover bid, or OPA, for banco sabadell, analysts are increasing the pressure.
The central question revolves around whether BBVA will sweeten its offer to win over Sabadell’s shareholders.the latest valuations suggest Sabadell is worth substantially more than BBVA’s current proposal.

Sabadell’s Valuation Climbs

Investment banks and analysis firms, tracking data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSE), now peg Sabadell’s objective price at €2.94 per share.
This values The entire entity at approximately €15.8 billion.
This target price has steadily risen in recent months, mirroring the increase in Sabadell’s stock value.
Did You Know?
Sabadell’s stock has seen a ~14% increase YTD(July 7, 2025) , driven by takeover speculation and strong financial results.

The progression is notable: from €2.57 in April to the current €2.94.
Sabadell’s shares closed below €2.9 in Friday’s trading session, highlighting the gap between market price and analyst expectations.

Optimistic valuations come from firms like Caixabank BPI (€3.2 per share), GVC Gaesco (€3.15), and Alantra (€3.05).
Conversely, more conservative estimates are offered by Kutxabank Investment (€2.7) and ODDO BHF (€2.6).

OPA Approval and Timeline

The next critical step is the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) approval of the OPA prospectus, triggering the acceptance period.
approval is anticipated within weeks, potentially extending the acceptance window until early September.

XTB analysts suggest Sabadell shareholders reject the current offer, citing governmental opposition and current market dynamics.
Pro Tip:
Shareholders should carefully weigh all factors, including potential synergies and the long-term outlook for both banks, before making a decision.

Potential for an Improved Offer

Despite government roadblocks to a full merger for at least three years, and Sabadell’s sale of TSB, analysts see room for BBVA to sweeten the deal.

Bank Of America analysts suggest selling the UK branch aligns with BBVA’s strategy, freeing capital to improve the offer.

These analysts see “solid industrial and financial sense” for BBVA in the transaction, despite governmental restrictions.
This suggests a basis for improved offer conditions.

BBVA intends to proceed with the OPA despite merger obstacles.
Citi analysts note modest operating expense synergies, considering domestic consolidation.

Technology Integration and Cost Savings

BBVA can integrate Sabadell’s technology platform without violating governmental restrictions, enabling cost savings.

Bank Of America estimates €450 million in technology synergies are still achievable in the short term.
Moreover, BBVA could save between €120 and €130 million annually in banking taxes, even without a merger.

Sabadell’s Position After TSB sale

Sabadell’s CEO,César González-Bueno,stated recently that the TSB sale makes BBVA’s offer even more insufficient.

Below is a summary of key Data Points

Factor	Details
Analyst Valuation of Sabadell	€2.94 per share (€15.8 billion total)
OPA Approval Timeline	CNMV approval expected in weeks; acceptance until early September
Analyst Recommendations	Some suggest rejecting the current offer; others see potential for BBVA to improve
Potential synergies	technology integration could yield significant cost savings
Sabadell’s Stance	CEO considers current offer insufficient, especially after TSB sale

Understanding Takeover Bids (OPAs)

A Takeover bid, known as an OPA (Oferta Pública de Adquisición) in Spain, is a public offer to acquire the outstanding shares of a company.
These bids can be pleasant, with the target company’s board recommending acceptance, or antagonistic, where the board opposes the offer.

Key factors influencing the success of an OPA include the offer price, regulatory approvals, and shareholder sentiment.
Improved offers, strategic synergies, and potential cost savings can all sway shareholder opinions.

Frequently Asked questions

• what is the current analyst valuation of Sabadell?
  Analysts estimate Sabadell’s value at approximately €2.94 per share, translating to a total valuation of about €15.8 billion.
• Why are analysts suggesting BBVA improve its offer for Sabadell?
  Given the current market conditions and governmental constraints, analysts believe that an improved offer from BBVA would be more attractive to Sabadell’s shareholders.
• What is the expected timeline for the CNMV’s approval of the OPA?
  The Spanish Market Supervisor (CNMV) is expected to provide their approval in the coming weeks, with the acceptance period extending until early September.
• What factors might influence BBVA’s decision to improve its offer?
  Factors such as the potential sale of TSB, the UK unit and the possibility of integrating sabadell’s technology platform could provide BBVA with additional financial flexibility.
• How could integrating Sabadell’s technology benefit BBVA?
  Integrating Sabadell’s technology platform could lead to significant cost savings for BBVA, particularly in terms of operational expenses and banking taxes.
• What are some analysts saying about the potential for cost synergies between BBVA and Sabadell?
  Analysts from firms like Bank of America and Citi suggest that substantial cost synergies are achievable, especially in the realm of technology integration, even without a full merger.

What do you think BBVA should do? Should they raise their offer, or walk away from the deal? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

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BBVA’s Bid Under Review: A Shifting Valuation Landscape

The proposed takeover of Banco Sabadell by BBVA is facing increased scrutiny as financial analysts are assigning higher valuations to Sabadell than the current offer price. This divergence in opinion is creating significant pressure on BBVA to possibly revise its bid or risk losing the deal. The situation highlights the complexities of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the banking sector and the importance of accurate financial valuation.

Key Factors Driving Sabadell’s Increased Valuation

Several factors are contributing to the upward revision of Sabadell’s valuation by analysts:

• Improved Financial Performance: Sabadell has demonstrated stronger-than-expected financial results in recent quarters, notably in net interest income and asset quality.
• Positive Outlook for Spanish Economy: A more optimistic outlook for the Spanish economy is boosting confidence in the banking sector as a whole.
• Strategic Assets: Sabadell possesses valuable assets, including its corporate banking division and its presence in specific regional markets.
• Potential Synergies: Analysts believe the potential synergies from a merger with BBVA may have been underestimated initially.

Comparative Analysis: BBVA’s Offer vs. Analyst Targets

The gap between BBVA’s offer and analyst price targets is widening. here’s a snapshot of recent assessments (as of July 7, 2025):

Analyst Firm	BBVA Offer Price (per share)	Analyst Price Target (per share)	Potential Upside
Goldman Sachs	€2.20	€2.65	20.45%
Morgan stanley	€2.20	€2.50	13.64%
JP Morgan	€2.20	€2.70	22.73%
UBS	€2.20	€2.45	11.36%

Impact on BBVA’s Strategy and Shareholder Sentiment

The increasing pressure from analysts is forcing BBVA to reassess its strategy. Several scenarios are possible:

1. Revised offer: BBVA could increase its offer price to reflect the higher valuations assigned by analysts. This is the most direct solution but would reduce the potential return on investment for BBVA.
2. Negotiation with Sabadell: BBVA might attempt to renegotiate the terms of the deal with Sabadell, potentially focusing on other aspects like governance or synergy realization.
3. Walk Away: If Sabadell remains unwilling to accept the current offer, BBVA could choose to abandon the takeover attempt.

Shareholder sentiment in both BBVA and Sabadell is playing a crucial role. BBVA shareholders will likely scrutinize any increased offer price, while Sabadell shareholders are pushing for a deal that reflects the bank’s true value. Market reaction