Anora’s Conclave Victory: Impact on Her Oscars Prospects

Oscars 2025: Uncertainty Looms After SAG Awards

With the 97th Oscars just around the corner on March 2, 2025, the race for the top awards remains intriguingly open. The 31st annual SAG Awards, held at the Shrine Auditorium, introduced unexpected twists that have complicated predictions, notably for best picture, best actor, and best actress.

SAG Awards: A Potential glimpse into the Future

While Academy members completed their final ballots the previous Tuesday, the SAG Awards results might offer insight into potential Oscar outcomes. It’s crucial to remember that the SAG Awards do not *impact* Oscar voting, but they “could offer hints of what to expect from it.”

Best Picture: ‘Conclave’s’ Surprising Victory

SAG-AFTRA’s 160,000 members chose Focus Features’ Conclave for best ensemble, a surprise win over frontrunners like Worldwide’s Wicked and Anora. One theory suggests, “Conclave benefited from being made available for streaming weeks before the Christmas holidays, whereas Wicked dropped after them.”

Conclave now approaches the Oscars with mixed signals:

• It lacks a directing Oscar nomination for Edward Berger.
• It secured top prizes at both the BAFTA and SAG Awards.

Notably, onyl Argo (2012) has previously won Best Picture under similar circumstances. While Conclave‘s BAFTA win may reflect a “home-field advantage,” its SAG Award is significant. the SAG best ensemble award has a somewhat inconsistent track record, overlapping with the eventual Best Picture winner in only 15 of 30 years. though, historically “almost every best picture Oscar surprise-winner first won the best ensemble SAG Award,” including titles like Shakespeare in Love (1998), crash (2005), Spotlight (2015), Parasite (2019), and CODA (2021).

The Preferential Ballot Factor

Since 2010, the Academy’s preferential ballot has been a “big Oscars wild-card.” The PGA Awards, using a similar system, favored Anora. However, the perceived less polarizing nature of Conclave might make it a beneficiary of this system, especially considering the growing number of international Academy members.

The key takeaway: “Nobody shoudl feel particularly confident in whatever their best picture prediction is for next Sunday!”

Best Actor: Chalamet Challenges Brody

The SAG Awards introduced uncertainty into the best actor race. While The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody dominated earlier ceremonies (Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA), SAG-AFTRA chose A complete Unknown’s Timothée Chalamet. Although Brody’s film has more Oscar nominations, Chalamet’s film may resonate with a broader audience, as “it’s a crowd-pleasing blockbuster, as opposed to a three-and-a-half-hour art piece.”

The Academy faces a choice: Add Brody to the list of actors with multiple Best Actor Oscars, including daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, and Tom Hanks, or award Chalamet, possibly making him the youngest ever winner, a record currently held by Brody.

Best Actress: moore vs.Madison vs. Torres

The best actress category sees The Substance’s Demi Moore, a Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner, pitted against Anora’s Mikey Madison, who recently won at the BAFTAs and Spirit Awards.

While a Madison win at SAG might have solidified her momentum, “it went to veteran moore,” signaling potential support for her performance. Though, I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres remains a potential “X-factor.” Despite statistical challenges, Torres could still surprise, as some voters have indicated their support.

Supporting Actor and Actress: Solidified Frontrunners

The SAG Awards reinforced existing expectations for best supporting actor and actress, favoring A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin and Emilia Pérez’s Zoe Saldaña. An upset in either category would be shocking. For Culkin, it could hinge on his film’s lack of a Best picture nomination. For Saldaña, the “debris caused by the implosion of Emilia Pérez‘s best actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón” might influence votes.

Final Thoughts

The 97th Oscars promise to be unpredictable. The SAG awards have injected uncertainty into key categories, making the final outcome far from certain.Keep an eye on these developments as the big night approaches. Will the SAG winners solidify their positions, or will the Academy offer up some surprises? Be sure to tune into the 97th Oscars on March 2, 2025, to find out!

Has the preferential ballot system had any similar impacts on other award shows like the BAFTAs or Golden Globes?

Archyde Interviews: Oscar Predictions and Surprises withmlogic Film Critic, Alexandra “Alex” Hartley

SAG Awards Shake Up: Alex’s insights on Oscars 2025

Alex, the 97th Oscars are just around the corner, and the SAG Awards have thrown some curveballs. What’s your take on these unexpected twists?

Alex Hartley: Well, the SAG Awards always offer intriguing hints about the Oscars, even if they don’t directly influence the voting. This year, they’ve certainly kept us on our toes, particularly in the Best Picture and acting categories.

Best Picture: The ‘Conclave’ Conundrum

Conclave’s SAG win came as a surprise. How might this affect its Oscars prospects?

Alex Hartley: It’s true that Conclave’s directing nod was missing from the Oscar noms, but its BAFTA and SAG wins are significant. Historically, almost every best Picture surprise-winner first won the Best Ensemble SAG Award. Though, it’s vital to note that the SAG Award doesn’t always predict the Oscars, with only a 50% overlap in winners.

The Preferential Ballot Question Mark

The preferential ballot system adds an element of unpredictability.How might this impact Best Picture?

Alex Hartley: Absolutely. Since 2010, the preferential ballot has been a wild card at the Oscars. Conclave’s less polarizing nature and the growing number of international Academy members could work in its favor. but remember, nobody should be too confident in their predictions this year!

best Actor: chalamet vs. Brody – Who Will Take the Gold?

Timothée Chalamet’s SAG win challenges Adrien Brody’s lead. what’s your take on this actors’ showdown?

Alex Hartley: It’s a fascinating showdown indeed. Brody could join the ranks of multiple Oscar-winning actors, but Chalamet’s performance in a crowd-pleasing blockbuster might resonate more with a broader audience.

Best Actress: Moore, Madison, Torres – A Three-Way Tussle

Demi Moore’s SAG win mixes things up. Who do you think could take home the Oscar?

Alex Hartley: It’s certainly a three-way tussle now. Moore’s win signals potential support, while Madison’s earlier victories are hard to ignore. But let’s not count out Fernanda Torres just yet. She’s still in the game, despite statistical challenges.

Supporting Actor and Actress: Culkin and Saldaña – Upsets Unlikely

Both actors are considered strong favorites. Do you see any upsets happening here?

Alex Hartley: I wouldn’t hold my breath for upsets in these categories. Culkin and Saldaña are solid favorites, but stranger things have happened, of course!

Final Predictions: Buckle up for an Unpredictable Oscars Night!

Alex, what can we expect from the 97th Oscars?

Alex Hartley: Expect the unexpected! The SAG Awards have thrown a lot into the mix, and we’re in for an incredibly unpredictable oscars night. Keep your eyes peeled,because surprises are guaranteed!