2023-07-06 18:37:48
MIAMI.- The hurricane season in the Atlantic could increase to 18 named tropical storms and 9 hurricanes, of which 4 would be major category due to “extreme anomalous heat” recorded on the sea surface, according to a Colorado State University (CSU) update released this Thursday.
The CSU Department of Atmospheric Sciences anticipated last April a “slightly below average” hurricane season, with a total of 13 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes, 2 of these major categories (3.4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
In theory, the activity in the Atlantic basin was going to be influenced this year by the appearance of the El Niño meteorological phenomenon, which usually calms the conditions that give rise to the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
But in their update Thursday, CSU scientists predict above-average activity due to rising water temperatures, which help turn tropical waves into storms and hurricanes, a phenomenon that may curb the influence of El Nino.
“Currently there are anomalies in the temperature of the sea surface (…), with record heat in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic,” Philip Klotzbach, head of the CSU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said on social media.
With record water temperatures and ‘El Niño,’ our expert on all things hurricane explains why this year’s season may surprise South Florida.
Forecasters warn that “there is more uncertainty than normal with this forecast due to the conflicting signals present: much warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters and a strong El Niño.”
The El Niño phenomenon increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, which can weaken storms as they form; but “extreme anomalous heat in the Atlantic can offset some of the typical wind shear caused” by this phenomenon, the CSU noted in its update.
The updated forecast assumes a significant increase from the 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes that the CSU forecast on June 1.
Today’s forecast includes an unnamed subtropical storm that formed in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy recorded last June.
Hurricane season averages, which concludes on November 30, are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
CSU experts estimate that the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States is above the long-term average.
The team of meteorologists will issue a forecast update on August 3.
The average global temperature on the planet’s surface hit an all-time high of 17.18 degrees Celsius (62.92 Fahrenheit) on Tuesday.according to calculations by the Climate Reanalyzer project at the University of Maine.
The combination of an early El Niño and climate change has led to warnings from scientists who have predicted this to be one of the hottest years on record.
The National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA for its acronym in English), for its part, released its prediction in May for the season that began on June 1.
DAccording to NOAA, 12-17 named storms and 5-9 hurricanes are expectedof which between 1 and 4 could be of great intensity (category 3 to 5).
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