2024-02-23 23:04:00
With marches, pickets, low income levels, low consumption and declining economic activity, The notable gap between reality and the financial situation continues to widen.
The exchange market was barely more toned after weeks of decline, but the BCRA continued adding reserves, bonds continued to rise, the country risk is at the lowest level in almost two years and the Buenos Aires stock market once again recovered volume and price.
And although there is concern about the unstable local climate, with grains that continue to lose price in international markets, the still validity of Javier Milei’s DNU – which, among other things, freed the market from the absurd Rental Law – allowed , according to data from City and Province notaries, have started the year 2024 with sharp rise in real estate pricestesting the ceiling of the fateful four years of the Fernández-Fernández administration.
But probably the best news of the day is linked to something that for now seems like an idea that is beginning to be ruminated. Along with the arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, he is roaming around the Buenos Aires offices – consulting analysts, operators, businessmen and even union members – about twenty representatives of investment funds, some of whom dared to say that “the way things are going, it is highly possible that the rating agencies will soon remove Argentina from the position standalone and with that leave the bottom of the world table”.
That step would be very important.because if the international rating agencies were to place the country again among the nations with a grade, even if it were “CCC-“, which is the worst of all, Permission would be opened for local papers so that many risk funds would have a free hand to buy back the forgotten Argentine paperswhich means, without ambiguity, that the possibility of the country falling into a new default has not yet been abandoned, but is declining rapidly.
This green financial outbreak with the population completely collapsed that occurs in Argentina comes at a time when External markets begin to have asset prices that are too high and a drop in interest rates that sooner or later should begin to appear.
In fact, at the end of the week there was a slight drop in US long rates: 5% were paid annually for a 1-year term, 4.3% for 5 years, 4.2% for 10 years and 4.4% at 30 years. And despite that, abroad the super dollar continued to fly: it rose 0.7% in Brazil, 0.3% in Chile and 0.1% in China, it did not change against the euro, the yen and the Mexican, and fell 0.1% against the pound.
In the local financial market the situation continued as it has been happening since Milei was in La Rosada and Luis Caputo in the Ministry of Economy.
With the exporting dollar at $930.86, the BCRA bought another US$118 million in the market and at the end of the day the monetary authority added another US$114 million to the reserves. With that, the blue dollar did not change and closed at $1,085, but after several days with significant drops, the Senebi rose $12.07 to $1,116.45, the MEP rose $22.67 to $1,073.71 and the cash with settlement rose $23. 05 up to $1,118.98, as more imports begin to be authorized. And with that, the gap between official and blue was 23% and that between CCL and the wholesaler was 33%.
Meanwhile, Argentine public securities remain in fashion. With good trading volume, national bonds rose another 1.5% and the country risk fell another 24 units, to 1,686 basis points, the lowest level in almost two years. Under the previous administration the risk reached close to 3,000 points, so a drop of more than 1,300 points has already accumulatedand if the risk drops another 800 additional points, the country will already be in a position to return to voluntary international credit, which would completely change the situation of suffocation in which we find ourselves.
In foreign markets, doubts are growing about the prices that companies linked to artificial intelligence have reached and a bubble is feared. That is why there was a mixed close on the New York Stock Exchange: the Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.1% and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. At the same time, the San Pablo Stock Exchange fell 0.6% and the Mexican Stock Exchange lost 0.8%.
However, the local stock market managed to raise its head after much doubt, due to the harsh stagflation situation in which the country finds itself. Thus, with $28,999 million traded in shares and $33,676 million in Cedears, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange rose 2.7%. While Argentine ADRs in New York showed increases between 1% and 4% for Bioceres, Macro, Francés, Pampa E, Galicia, Supervielle, TGS and Edenor, with decreases of 1% to 10% for Mercado Libre, Loma Black, IRSA and Despegar.
The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange.
Finally, in commodities everything remains tied to the expectation of global economic growth and the geopolitical tensions that do not stop. Thus, there was a 2.7% drop for oil, precious metals were stronger, base metals acted mixed, in Chicago grain prices continued to decline and finally there was a 0.9% drop for oil. Bitcoinwith decreases of up to 1.5% in the rest of the cryptocurrencies.
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