2023-08-26 09:40:50
In the near future, will artificial intelligence be able to replace jobs? While certain international studies have helped to reinforce the fears expressed on this subject, the International Labor Organization (ILO) seems more optimistic.
Since generative Artificial Intelligence (capable of generating text, images or other media) has imposed itself on the front of the technological scene, the question of its impact on the world of work has raised many questions. Admittedly, the time when machines will dominate the world has not yet come, but the countdown has already begun and this generative AI has indeed begun to invade our ways of life.
But what about its impact on the quantity and quality of jobs, with a market that could be disrupted by “chatbots” such as “ChatGPT”?
Create more jobs what to destroy
To answer this question, the ILO (International Labor Organization) of the United Nations has just published a study examining the potential effect of artificial intelligence platforms. Called “Generative AI and Jobs: A global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality”, the study suggests that most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation. On the contrary, the latter are more likely to be supplemented than replaced by the latest wave of generative AI, such as “ChatGPT”.
In this regard, the study finds that AI is more likely to create jobs than to destroy them. “The first consequence of this new technology is unlikely to be job destruction, but rather potential changes in job quality, including work intensity and autonomy,” the scoping study reveals. world.
On another level, the document points out that the effects of this new technology vary considerably between professions and areas, while women are more likely than men to see their work affected.
In this respect, office work turns out to be the category most exposed to artificial intelligence technologies, with nearly a quarter of tasks considered to be very exposed and more than half of tasks presenting an average level of exposure. .
Among managers and technicians, only a small portion of jobs will be impacted by AI, while around a quarter have average levels of exposure, according to the ILO.
Furthermore, the share of employment potentially affected by automation was more than twice as high for women as for men, due to the overrepresentation of women in clerical work, particularly in low-income countries. high and intermediate.
A different exhibition depending on the country
On another level, the study highlights notable differences in the effects on countries at different levels of development, linked to the economic contexts and existing technological gaps. Consequence of this data: rich countries, due to their economic context and their technological advancement, should be more impacted by AI in existing jobs.
“5.5% of total employment in high-income countries are potentially exposed to the automation effects of technology, while in low-income countries the risk of automation is only about 0.4 % of employment”, underlines the document.
On the other hand, the potential for increase is virtually the same in all countries, suggesting that with the right policies in place, this new wave of technological transformation could offer significant benefits to developing countries. .
“One might have expected this approach to generate alarming estimates of net job losses, but this is not the case. Rather, our global estimates point to a future in which work will transform, but will still be very much in existence… We argue that the emergence of the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) reinforces this changing picture, due to its refined ability to perform cognitive tasks, such as analyzing text, writing documents and messages, searching in private repositories and on the Web for additional information…”, underlines the document.
As a result—at least in the short term—this new wave of automation will focus on a different group of workers, usually associated with “knowledge work”. And thanks to technological advancement, many of these jobs may never see the light of day in developing countries, where they have traditionally served as a means of increasing female employment.
For the other types of “knowledge work”, the exposure is only partial, rather suggesting a potential for increase and greater productivity gains than the displacement of jobs.
To conclude, of course, the launch last November of the conversational robot “ChatGPT”, considered a revolution in the use of AI, has created many fears about the transformation of the world of work and its impact on job. But what is certain today, as Imed Hanana, CIO Scet-Tunisia and president of the Tunisian Association for Artificial Intelligence (Atia) believes, no one has the absolute truth about the future impact of the ‘artificial intelligence. The latter currently offers opportunities to improve our skills and solve complex problems. However, the recent exponential development of Generative AI, with programs that have demonstrated impressive abilities in article writing, artistic creation and musical composition…, raises concerns about the influence it could have. on human thought.
Just wait and see
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