2023-06-06 07:20:14
(Original title: Bangda Asia: The Australian Federal Reserve unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the Australian dollar benefited from a climb)
On June 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at noon, continuing to hit a new high since 2012, after the market expected it to keep interest rates unchanged. According to the statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia believes that inflation has peaked, but is still too high and may require further tightening of monetary policy, with more tightening depending on inflation and economic development. Further interest rate increases would provide greater confidence that inflation will return to target within a reasonable time frame. The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasized that it will take necessary measures to resolutely restore the CPI to the target level. Lowe, the chairman of the RBA, said that the Fed’s decision-making is now driven by data, and the data has proved to be unstable. The key issue is still that consumer prices are running around 7%, while the target is 2-3%. Complicating the situation was Australia’s industrial relations department, which raised the minimum wage for about a fifth of the nation’s workers by 5.75 per cent, effective July 1. The decision prompted some economists to raise their forecasts for the RBA’s peak interest rate – Deutsche Bank now sees it at 4.6 per cent in September.
In addition, the Saudi state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco will increase oil prices sold to Asia, Europe and the Americas in July. Less than 24 hours ago, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting ended and Saudi Arabia announced an additional voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day in July. The member states have extended production cuts until the end of 2024. In the latest price adjustment, the price of Saudi Aramco’s Arabian Light crude sold to Asia in July was raised by 45 cents a barrel to $3 above the regional benchmark. This price adjustment is quite different from market expectations. Before the OPEC+ meeting, according to a survey of Asian buyers, sellers generally expected Saudi Aramco to reduce the price of crude oil sold to Asia in July, by between 60 and 65 cents. Traders are forecasting relatively modest cuts, but no one expects Aramco to raise prices. In addition, Aramco raised the prices of all its other crude grades by 45 cents a barrel. In July, Saudi Aramco will increase the price of crude oil sold to the United States and Northwest Europe even more, by as much as 90 cents per barrel, while the price of crude oil sold to the Mediterranean region will increase by 60 cents per barrel. UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: “With Saudi Arabia cutting production in July and due to warmer temperatures, Saudi domestic crude oil demand may increase.
The data that need attention today include the monthly rate of retail sales in the euro zone in April, the IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI in Canada in May, and the US 6 global supply chain pressure index.
gold/dollar
Gold fluctuated upward yesterday, the daily line closed up slightly, and the current exchange rate is trading around 1960. In addition to the support provided by short-covering to gold, the main reason for the rebound of gold is the fact that the US dollar index fell back after profit-taking and weak economic data cooled the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations in June. However, the strong non-agricultural employment report in the United States and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates within this year limit the room for gold to rebound. Today, focus on the pressure situation around 1970, and the lower support is around 1950.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar fluctuated and consolidated yesterday, and the daily line closed up slightly. In addition to the weakening of the U.S. dollar index due to profit-taking and weak economic data cooling the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations in June, the exchange rate has been strongly supported. The rise in commodity crude oil, international copper, and iron ore prices has also formed a certain degree of commodity currency Australian dollar. support. In the early Asian market, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the Australian dollar rose rapidly. The current exchange rate is trading around 0.6660. Today, focus on the pressure around 0.6750, and the lower support is around 0.6550.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD fluctuated upward yesterday, the daily line closed up slightly, and the current exchange rate is trading around 1.3410. In addition to short-covering has provided some support to the exchange rate, the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations within the year have also provided some support to the exchange rate. In addition, the drop in crude oil prices also provided some support for the exchange rate. However, the expected cooling of the Fed’s interest rate hike in June limited the room for the exchange rate to rebound. Focus on the pressure around 1.3500 today, and the lower support is around 1.3300.
This article comes from: Financial circles
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