In the final match of the 29th round of the OTP Bank League on Sunday, Újpest, which is in the last place and has not yet been relegated, will host MTK, which has been unbeaten in five games, at the Szusza Ferenc Stadium.
Újpest starts the match with mixed signs: the team has lost four of its last eight championships, and three of them were large defeats – Ferencváros 5-0, Zalaegerszeg 5-1, Kisvárda 4-1 purples. However, in the same period, Géza Mészöly’s team defeated second-placed Paks (2–1), third-placed Fehérvár (2-0) and fourth-placed Puskás (2-0).
On the other hand, MTK can be said to be stable lately, the last time they suffered a defeat at home against Paks on March 3rd (0-2). Since then, the newcomer has two wins and three draws.
This will be the third meeting between the two teams this season: the first two times MTK won confidently (2-0 away, 3-0 at home).
In light of these, the outcome of the match is almost unpredictable, but it is clear who the key players can be, from whom we can count on goals and assists.
On the Újpest side Matija Ljujic is in great form, scoring four goals and providing one assist in his last five league games. With nine goals, the 30-year-old Serbian attacker is Újpest’s most successful player this season.
(photo: Újpest FC)
All in all, he has had 36 shots so far, seventeen of which found the net (47.2 percent efficiency). His overall shot xG was 6.58, or 2.42 more goals than would have been expected based on the quality of his chances. From the position of his shots, it can be seen that he is brave even from a distance, despite this, he has not yet managed to hit the goal from outside the penalty area. MTK’s defenders must pay close attention to his forays into the box.
At MTK István Bognár the home scorer, who, like Ljujic, also has nine goals. The form of the two players is also very similar, as Bognár also scored four goals in his last five matches, the only difference is that the MTK attacker distributed two assists.
MTI/Tibor Illyés
Bognár already had 57 attempts this year, of which 23 found the net (40.3 percent efficiency). The xG of his shots is 5.6, meaning he scored 3.4 goals more than expected. The difference between the xG of the two players is caused by the fact that while Bognár only took one penalty, Ljujic took four (the xG of the penalty is 0.76). Bognár’s goals-xG ratio of 3.4 is also outstanding at the league level, only Zalaegerszeg’s forward Yohan Croizet performs better in this regard (+4). Bognár also likes to try from outside the box, and he has already scored three goals from distance. In his case, the defenders not only have to follow the deep starts well, but they also have to pay attention to the long-range attempts.
Of course, the game of the two teams does not only consist of these two men, but seeing their current form and their influence on the team, it would be surprising if they were not the number one source of danger in front of the goal.
Neither team has a realistic chance of relegation, nor of qualifying for the European Cup, regardless of this, both can improve their position in the standings with a possible win.
The program of the 29th round:
Saturday:
Ferencvárosi TC-Kisvárda Master Good 0–0
Puskás Academy FC-Paksi FC 5–0
Diósgyőr VTK-Debreceni VSC 5–3
Sunday:
14.05 Kecskemét TE-Mezőkövesd Zsóry FC
16.00 Fehérvár FC-Zalaegerszegi TE FC
18.30 Újpest FC-MTK Budapest