Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) reveals its view on the baht’s direction this week that it tends to move in a frame of 32.75-33.30 baht / dollar, compared to last week, the baht appreciated at 32.99 / dollar after trading in a frame of 32.95-. 33.48 The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies last week. After the Bank of England (BOE) raised interest rates 25bp to 0.50% in a 5-4 resolution, with four members voting to raise interest rates 50bp to 0.75% to curb inflation. The BOE will also begin cutting QE from £895 billion and will reduce its bond holdings from £20 billion.
Meanwhile, the euro rebounded from a 20-month low to a three-week high after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its policy as expected but accepted the risk of rising inflation and opened the door. for the interest rate hike this year. The ECB confirmed the hierarchy of policy implementation. The asset purchase program must be terminated before interest rates are raised.
However, employment data and salary growth US Jan. Brighter than expected to support the US bond Yield. and the dollar at the end of the week on risky assets such as the US stock market continues to fluctuate The price of crude oil rose to its highest point in 7 years. Foreign investors bought net 2,280 million baht in the Thai stock market but sold 2,267 million baht in bonds.
Global Markets Group views that investors will pay attention to monthly inflation figures. US Jan. to assess the direction of policy tightening of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) further
It noted that the dollar’s positive momentum was weakening as the market received much of the news of the Fed’s interest rate hike this year. Meanwhile, other leading central banks Outside the United States, the policy has begun to adjust as well. The rally in the euro reflected a significant stance of the ECB, the central bank that markets had previously expected to be the last in the world to normalize its policy. The German 2-year and 10-year Mabond Yield jumped 35bp and 25bp respectively.
for domestic factors The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at a record low of 0.50% on February 9. January rose at the highest rate in nine months at 3.23% year-on-year. but mainly as a result of energy costs The core consumer price index rose 0.52%, while the news that the Ministry of Public Health had the idea of not locking down but living with the disease. should have a positive effect on the sentiment of the baht