20th day of fighting in Ukraine. Since the start of hostilities, there have been 700 Ukrainian civilians killed and more than 1,000 injured according to the UN. At the diplomatic level, the negotiations have so far produced no tangible results. QR news takes stock of this war with Aude Merlin, lecturer in political science and specialist in Russia and the Caucasus at ULB and Julien Pomarède, political science researcher at the ULB.
Long conflict?
For Julien Pomarède, there is no doubt that the conflict is not about to end and will last at least several more weeks: “The Russians have engaged in a heavy military sequence by pounding the cities they consider strategic. They seek to show that they are capable of taking big cities. The current unknown is kyiv. Will they really seek to take the capital knowing that in this case, it could be extremely long.
Aude Merlin recalls that the Russian military staff systematically speaks of a small victorious war but that conflicts often last “We have experienced in the past a stalemate in the conflict in Chechnya. Of course, diplomatic channels must continue to operate but the conflict risks getting bogged down in Ukraine as well”.
The passive European Union?
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the EU has acted in a strong way underlines Julien Pomarède: “The EU has imposed extremely heavy sanctions. It has attacked the Russian central bank in particular, which prevents it from acting on the ruble to curb inflation. There are very few regimes in the world that have been punished so much.” The ULB political science researcher recalls that Europe has also released funds to send weapons. “If Europe wants to go even further, then it will be military action and in this case, we engage in a major war which can lead to a nuclear conflict. And it could be highly damaging to start for the Ukrainians “.
Aude Merlin adds that Europe does not have a unified European Defence. Moreover, Europe still counts on the United States for its protection.
Blue helmet ?
A peacekeeping mission or interposition of United Nations forces is not possible in practice, explains Julien Pomarède “For such a mission, you always need an agreement from the UN Security Council and Russia as permanent member has a right of veto”.
So is the UN still useful? The political science researcher recognizes that we are somehow experiencing the limit of the security system as in the time of the Cold War: “The USSR used its right of veto more than 80 times during the Cold War. So we are clearly on the edge of a system. But that shouldn’t make us lose sight of the fact that the UN is a fundamental forum for discussion. It makes it possible to bring belligerents like the Russian representative and the Ukrainian diplomat face-to-face. brings multilateralism to life even if it is blocked or not really functional”.
Russian public opinion
Could Russian public opinion overthrow the head of the Kremlin? It seems quite difficult at the moment. First of all because despite the brilliance of a Russian journalist, the information is particularly padlocked, as Russia specialist Aude Merlin reminds us: “In Russia, the media are talking about an imminent attack on civilians by the Nazis. Russia therefore had to intervene. The Russian army is a peacekeeping force that provides humanitarian aid. And it is also said that nationalist Ukrainians use civilians as human shields”. Beyond this propaganda, there is a legislative framework which reinforces the punishments in the event of revolt or rebellion explains Aude Merlin: “Fear is currently neutralizing Russians, especially since the legislative framework has been strengthened to counter any rebellion”
For Julien Pomarède, the weight of the economic sanctions which will impoverish the Russian people, could perhaps have an effect on the street. “The Russian propaganda rhetoric will no longer hold water. Putin’s legitimacy will no doubt be eroded.”
Block Russian gas?
Should Europe further toughen the tone of economic sanctions? In any case, this is what the Nobel Prize in Economics Stiglitz who calls on Europeans to do without Russian gas.
For Julien Pomarède, it may also be necessary to be careful not to push Vladimir Poutine too much into his entrenchments. “An autocrat of this kind who tends to be a die-hard, it’s not clear what his reaction might be if he is pushed into a corner. He could become even more radicalized”.