2023-10-13 15:01:00
As part of the political poll “The choice of Belgians”, carried out by the Kantar institute for La Libre and RTBF, respondents were asked the themes which would determine their vote (respondents could choose several themes) if the elections took place tomorrow. What to remember?
A cardinal issue for four out of six parties
First, that some 40.6% of Walloons mentioned the theme “income and purchasing power” as one of those which will determine their vote. This result is significantly higher than that of the second issue in order of importance, taxation, designated by 26.3% of respondents.
In the Brussels Region too, the issue of purchasing power clearly comes out on top, highlighted by 36.4% of respondents, ahead of health care (21.3%). In Flanders, it is certainly first (29.2%), but closely followed by immigration (28%).
Survey on the choice of Belgians. ©IPM Graphics
Notably on the French-speaking side, purchasing power is the main concern – by far – of voters in four out of six parties: PS, PTB, MR and Défi (in a slightly less clear manner). The main concerns of Green voters are, unsurprisingly, the climate and the environment. While the concerns are less clearly identifiable among the voters of the Les Engagés movement, who, in addition to purchasing power, point to taxation, health care, the climate and the environment, or even education, with quite a bit variations between Walloons and Brussels residents.
Declining purchasing power
The importance given to purchasing power by those surveyed is not surprising given the way in which Belgians see it evolving. According to the La Libre-RTBF survey, some 60.3% of Walloons say that their purchasing power has decreased in 2023 compared to 56.7% of Brussels residents and 53.1% of Flemish people.
Survey on the choice of Belgians. ©IPM Graphics
As a corollary, nearly one Walloon in four (23.9%) and more than one Brussels resident in five (22.2%) say they are unable to pay for all the health care they need (medication, dentist or medical consultation, for example) compared to just over one Flemish in ten (12.6%).
©OLIVIER PAPEGNIES / COLLECTIF HU
The economist Philippe Defeyt (former federal secretary of Écolo) analyzed the evolution of purchasing power in recent years. According to his calculations, the average net disposable income per person has… increased in 2023. “But there is no contradiction between the macroeconomic figures and people’s feelings,” he emphasizes. And this, for three reasons. One: “There is a price difference between what we buy every day, like food, and what we buy more rarely, like furniture. But food has increased by 15% in one year… People do not see their average purchasing power, but what they experience on a daily basis”.
Second reason: “People’s life journeys. For example, a couple that separates does not lose purchasing power, but the standard of living of both people will decrease. Finally three: “Consumer behavior. In our societies, desires increase faster than needs.”
State reform does not concern many people
There are the issues that concern Belgians and then those that go over their heads. Among these: a future reform of the State, which the N-VA is demanding loudly. Barely 4.2% of Walloons and 5.7% of Brussels residents consider that this is an important issue in view of the elections, and barely more in Flanders, with 9.6% of respondents. Among the voters of the different parties, only those of the N-VA (22.5% of them) attach a certain importance to state reform. And again, this theme only comes in fifth position in order of importance among these voters.
In the same vein, themes such as defense, international politics, culture or mobility play little role in people’s votes.
Immigration, an important issue in Flanders
The main issues highlighted by those surveyed differ little between the three regions of the country. With one exception: immigration. It is the second concern of Flemish voters (28% of respondents cite it), but the fourth in Brussels (18.1%) and only the twelfth (11.3%) in the south of the country.
In Flanders, unsurprisingly, immigration is a key issue for no less than 62.1% of voters in Vlaams Belang (far right), the leading party in the north of the country in the La Libre-RTBF poll. It is also the first concern of N-VA voters (33.1%). On the French-speaking side, only MR voters attach a certain importance to it.
Survey on the choice of Belgians. ©IPM Graphics
This survey was carried out by the Kantar institute via an online survey from September 10 to October 9 among 436 voters living in Wallonia, 566 voters living in Flanders and 545 voters living in Brussels with the right to vote in the 2024 national elections. Their representativeness was weighted according to the Belgian population according to age, level of education, professional status and province. The maximum margin of error is 4.4% in all three regions.
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