A man walks past a video screen showing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech at the Communist Party Museum in Beijing, before the opening of the annual session of the National People’s Congress on March 5, 2023. (GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)
[The Epoch Times, March 3, 2023](Reported by Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya) The CCP’s “two sessions” (CPPCC and National People’s Congress) will be held tomorrow (4th) and the day after tomorrow. Because the economy has fallen into a trough, the policy direction released by the two sessions has become one of the highlights. The top leaders of the Communist Party of China had earlier asked to tell a good economic story, and recently the government has also released a “good” message for the economy. However, experts believe that China’s economy has leaked from all sides, the new team that will take office is incompetent, and the economy may go back 20 years.
2022 is almost the worst year for China’s economy in nearly half a century due to the strict new crown virus zero policy blockade. The zero-clearing restrictions were abruptly lifted in December last year.
On March 2, Wang Wentao, Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of the Communist Party of China, stated at a press conference that during the Chinese New Year period, the passenger flow in key business districts in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by 27.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the country compared with the previous year. The growth rate was 6.8% over the same period, “the trend of recovery in the consumer market is relatively obvious.” He also said that it is necessary to restore and expand consumption in many ways, as well as retain high-quality stock of foreign capital and introduce more high-quality foreign capital, and so on.
However, this is contrary to the status quo of the industry disclosed by industry insiders and the difficulty of people finding employment. Many experts believe that China’s economy has huge problems and its prospects are not optimistic. The biggest problem is the system problem.
Industry insiders: The chain reaction of the economic downturn is that the industry is depressed and the employment is poor.
Ms. Li, a manager of a real estate company in Shanghai, told The Epoch Times on the 3rd that although the authorities have lifted the blockade, the real estate industry, which is the backbone of the economy, shows no signs of improvement.
“There are 6 to 7 intermediary companies around us, and now half of them have collapsed. Like our company, it is still acquiring land, but the scale is small, and it is still laying off employees to maintain business operations. Because the pillar of China’s economy is real estate after all. Enterprises and real estate are not good, and recruitment is definitely not good, there is a chain reaction.”
Ms. Li said that in terms of commercial real estate, Chinese people are afraid to spend money in offline business now, and consumption is downgrading, so the business of shopping malls will not be good.
“People are afraid to consume because everyone panics. First, the birth rate is negative growth, and the pensions of the post-80s, post-90s, and post-00s are all problematic. They originally hoped to stimulate economic growth through domestic demand, but now everyone is unwilling to consume. .Second, if consumption is insufficient, the commercial real estate in real estate will die. Now the shopping malls are empty.”
“Commercial real estate is dead, and residential development is such that everyone doesn’t want to buy a house. Real estate in third- and fourth-tier cities is in a mess. Do you think the economy can still be good?”
Ms. Li said that there is still a panic among people. The authorities are going to delay retirement. Now everyone is saving money, let alone spending money indiscriminately. “Because everyone thinks that if you don’t make a deposit, you will drink the northwest wind. So it has a chain reaction.”
Mr. Chen, a Shanghai businessman, told The Epoch Times on March 2 that many hypermarkets in Shanghai were closed.
“In the past, shops on the frontier streets could not be rented at all, and many shops on Hengshan Road, the French Concession, and the city center were also closed. The second-hand housing in Shanghai is all declining, because the outsiders have no work, they all leave, and the houses cannot be rented out. Second-hand houses want to sell at high prices, but no one will take over.
“Shanghai’s Yuyuan Road street used to be very lively at night, but now many shops are closed,” Mr. Chen said. Now rich people in Shanghai dare not spend money recklessly, knowing that the current economic situation is very bad. Generally speaking, everyone feels that the economic situation is getting worse and worse. “
China’s economic prospects are uncertain. Job seekers from all walks of life find it difficult to find a job. New graduates are struggling to find jobs everywhere.
On March 3, the topic “Girls crashed more than 30 times in job interviews after graduation” appeared on the mainland Baidu’s hot search list. According to the news, a girl in Hunan sent a video crying on March 1, saying that she could not find a job after interviewing with more than 30 companies.
On March 2, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the Communist Party of China announced that there will be 11.58 million college graduates in 2023. The previous record was 10.76 million last year.
Mr. Chen, a Shanghai businessman, told The Epoch Times that it is difficult for young people to find jobs nowadays. “I have a few friends who opened factories. They used to recruit people, but they had to pick and choose. Now they recruit people randomly, and they catch a lot of people.” .”
Ms. Li from Shanghai also said that it has been difficult for graduates to find jobs in the past two years. Don’t listen to the government saying that the market is recovering now, and start arranging job fairs. Even if the employment of graduates this year can be solved, what about those who graduated during the epidemic?
“You have to be prepared. People over 35 years old may be laid off, or their wages may drop sharply. Basically, recruitment agencies don’t think much about it. But you have no security, so how dare you spend money indiscriminately? “she says.
Enterprises in major foreign trade provinces lament the sad life, small and medium-sized enterprises surge out
In Fujian, a major coastal manufacturing and foreign trade province, light industrial products such as shoes, clothing, textiles, and food are sold at home and abroad. Hong Kong’s “Ming Pao” reported on the 3rd that many local private manufacturing companies said that “everyone has had a hard time” in the past few years. Last year was a representative year. The person in charge of a large shoe factory in the province lamented, “What policy is changing, where orders cannot be placed, and what is happening outside is directly reflected in the order.”
Sun Lijian, a professor at the School of Economics at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that with the rise in domestic labor costs and the impact of uncertainties in recent years, many small and medium-sized enterprises have also chosen to relocate to Southeast Asia to set up factories and adjust their business models. China”.
Among the private companies interviewed by the newspaper recently, the larger ones also expressed that they have or are considering going overseas, but due to factors such as “language barriers, lack of contacts overseas, and unfamiliarity with local laws and regulations”, many people are still waiting and watching.
Suzhou and Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, where the electronic factories in mainland China are concentrated, have accelerated the outward movement of industries due to the lockdown of the epidemic. The orders of many factories have been greatly reduced. Recently, production has declined and wages have decreased. Many people who want to find jobs have long queues. Waiting, but the manufacturer only recruits a small number of employees, resulting in serious involution.
Economic Observer.com reported on March 2 that a recruitment agency said that many factories in Suzhou and Kunshan were saturated with workers. Some factories that recruited 200-300 people a day for the past two years now only recruit 20-50 people a day.
Expert: If Xi Jinping wants to tell a good economic story, he must make up a story
In the face of a continued economic downturn, when the epidemic prevention measures were suddenly loosened at the end of last year, the CCP emphasized economic development.
At the same time, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping issued instructions through the official media Economic Daily on January 1, asking the media to “tell the story of China’s economic development in the new era.” On January 4, Cai Qi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, demanded to “sing the theory of China’s bright economy” at the National Propaganda Ministers Meeting of the Communist Party of China.
Xie Tian, a professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina in the United States, told The Epoch Times on the 3rd that the CCP authorities have said that they must tell good stories about the economy, and even sing about Illuminati, exposing that they have been making up stories.
“It was exposed inadvertently. The Chinese economy is a fabricated story. Because the economy in normal countries is not told as a story. It is a cold, hard, and very solid data. And the economy It always goes up and down. There are times of prosperity and times of recession. Data is data, and there is no story for this thing. The CCP says to tell a story, and it has to tell this story well, which just shows that they have been making up stories before. .”
Xie Tian said that the CCP has been making up a lie about China’s rapid economic growth to deceive the Chinese people and the world, and now it wants to make up a romantic story and play it to its heart’s content. CCP officials treat the national economy and people’s livelihood as a trifling matter, and talk nonsense.
Xie Tian believes that from another perspective, the fact that the CCP wants to make up stories just shows that China’s economic situation is very serious, and it has leaked from all sides.
“I estimate that this year may face a very large economic disaster, from unemployment to debt bubbles, to the transfer of industrial chains, and economic downturn.” He said.
Li Qiang’s team, who completely obeyed Xi Jinping, took the stage to analyze: China’s economy may fall back by 20 years
Xi is expected to unveil an economic team made up of his cronies at the Communist Party’s National People’s Congress, which opens on March 5. Experts believe that it is doubtful whether the new team, expected to be led by the new Premier Li Qiang, will be able to rescue the economy and cooperate with Xi’s loyalty demands.
Xie Tian told The Epoch Times that Li Qiang, who used to be Xi Jinping’s secretary, is actually a party official. Originally, there were some experts in the State Council, or some professionals with overseas and international experience. Obedient officials.
“Xi Jinping trusts these party officials and party sticks. This team cannot manage the economy well. In addition, China’s three carriages (investment, consumption, and export) have stalled. This is something no one can deny, especially in foreign trade. , Exports have declined for several consecutive quarters, which has not happened in decades.”
“I think China’s entire economy, especially in terms of imports and exports, is likely to experience a sharp setback. It will go back 20 years and return to the state before China’s accession to the WTO.” He said.
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China claimed to deepen the reform of the financial system and improve the system of unified leadership of the Party Central Committee over scientific and technological work. The “Two Sessions” of the CCP will pass the reform plan of the party-state organization, and the official declared that “it will be guided by strengthening the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee.” According to foreign media reports, through the institutional reform of the authorities, Xi will promote the strengthening of the supervision of the financial sector and reorganize the Central Financial Work Commission (CFWC), which was originally under the State Council.
A Voice of America reporter reported on March 3 that China’s economic prospects are not optimistic, and the biggest problem is the system. Xia Yeliang, an economist and former professor of Peking University, said: “The biggest problem is that Xi Jinping’s proposition deviates from the track of a market economy and wants to return to the old path of a planned economy.” Another economist, retired professor of Trinity College in the United States, Wen Guanzhong also Said: “The main problem in China now is a systemic problem, because Xi Jinping wants to follow the party-state system and use the party instead of the market to decisively allocate resources.”
Responsible editor: Gao Jing#