Bitcoin traded down slightly on Sunday, hovering around $67,628, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on global markets. The cryptocurrency has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, initially reacting to escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, before stabilizing somewhat over the weekend.
Despite a brief recovery above $70,000 earlier in the week, analysts are increasingly pointing to structural factors within the Bitcoin market that suggest further downside risk. On-chain analyst Boris, writing on X, highlighted a rising Long-Term Holder (LTH) Active Supply Ratio as a key indicator. This ratio tracks the activity of Bitcoin held for extended periods, and its recent increase suggests a growing trend of long-term holders distributing their holdings.
According to Boris, increased activity within the LTH supply often precedes significant price movements, typically involving a strategic distribution of Bitcoin to meet demand. As demand weakens, the market often enters a period of consolidation, allowing this distribution to continue. The analyst suggests that once the distribution phase is complete, a downward price move is likely. Since the start of the recent increase in LTH activity, the price of BTC has already fallen from approximately $95,000 to nearly $60,000.
The continued rise in long-term holder supply, even after the recent price decline, reinforces the possibility of further downside, according to Boris. He cautioned that any upward movements in the short term may represent a “liquidity illusion” occurring within the broader distribution phase. This means that temporary price increases could be driven by short covering or speculative buying, rather than sustained demand.
Boris identified the $60,000-$62,000 range as a potential support zone, but warned that it may simply be acting as a liquidity generation zone – an area where trading orders are concentrated, often including stop-loss orders that can exacerbate price declines. Based on this analysis, the analyst believes a downward price trajectory is the more probable scenario for Bitcoin in the coming months.
The cryptocurrency market’s sensitivity to geopolitical events was underscored earlier this week when news of U.S. And Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a sharp market crash, sending Bitcoin down to around $63,410. The total crypto market capitalization fell 5.42% in a single hour, wiping out billions in recent gains. This followed a period of volatility in late February and early March, as tensions in the Middle East escalated, prompting investors to shed risk assets, including Bitcoin. Gulf News reported on March 3, 2026, that Bitcoin had sunk below $70,000 as the conflict drove investors out of risk assets, coinciding with a broad sell-off in European and Asian markets.
Cryptonews.com reported on March 8, 2026, that Bitcoin had reclaimed $71,000, but the on-chain analysis suggests this recovery may be temporary. The situation remains fluid, with energy markets identified as a key transmission channel for risk, according to Gulf News. Oil prices have spiked amid fears of supply disruption, while gold has too seen increased demand as investors seek safe-haven assets.
