Bitcoin Price: Will BTC Break $100K?

Bitcoin Price Consolidates Near $97k Amidst Inflation Concerns: What’s Next?

New York,July 7,2025 – The Bitcoin price is currently trading around $97,000,showing little movement this week as market participants remain cautious. Concerns regarding U.S. trade policies and persistent inflation are weighing on the cryptocurrency, preventing it from breaking above the $100,000 mark.

Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Current Price

Despite the news that the implementation of President trump’s reciprocal trade tariffs may be delayed, offering a window for negotiations, Bitcoin has not experienced a significant boost. while treasury yields have stabilized and equity markets have seen gains, Bitcoin continues to trade within a holding pattern that has persisted since mid-December.

The potential application of reciprocal tariffs in the second quarter is keeping investors wary of cryptocurrencies. This is reflected in spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which have recorded outflows for four consecutive days, accumulating to nearly $680 million week-to-date, according to Coinglass data.

Inflation figures released this week have further contributed to the subdued market sentiment. Higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer price Index (PPI) inflation readings have led the market to reduce expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Currently, the market anticipates only one 25 basis point rate cut this year, and even that is not fully priced in.

Trade tariffs and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance are offsetting the potential benefits of a more crypto-kind regulatory environment under President Trump and increased corporate buying. This raises the question of whether the current consolidation phase is nearing its end.

Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index has only reached its peak once this year,indicating a predominantly neutral market sentiment. Historically, a strong correlation exists between the Fear and Greed Index and Bitcoin’s price. Sustained greed typically fuels rallies, as seen during the December surge. Conversely, the market has not yet entered a state of extreme fear, which often signals a market bottom.

Potential for a Rise Above $100k

On-chain data offers a glimmer of hope, suggesting that selling pressure from short-term holders is diminishing. The volume of Bitcoin spent at a loss by these holders has decreased from 5.5K BTC in early February to 3.8K BTC.This is approaching the yearly average of 3.5K. A slowdown in panic selling indicates market stabilization.

Pro Tip: Keep an eye on long-term holder activity. If long-time holders remain primarily inactive, it signals stronger conviction, potentially providing support for Bitcoin around current levels and paving the way for recovery once overall market sentiment improves.

Furthermore, on-chain transactions up to $10,000, typically associated with retail investors, have stabilized, declining by just 2%, considerably less than the 20% drop observed in January. This growth in monthly retail investor activity suggests improving market sentiment, favoring near-term upside potential for Bitcoin.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio,which assesses whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued compared to its ancient performance,remains significantly below levels seen in previous bull cycles. This suggests that Bitcoin may still have considerable upward potential.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key levels to Watch

Bitcoin continues to consolidate between $91,500 and $100,000, currently hovering around $97,000. The price remains above the multi-month rising trendline.

For buyers to regain control, they need to push the price above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $100,000 to retest $106,000. surpassing this level would create a higher high, potentially bringing $109,500 and new all-time highs into focus.

However, if sellers, supported by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50, break the rising trendline support, it could open the door to $91,500.A break below this level would be needed to establish a lower low.

Indicator	Current Status	Implication
Price	~$97,000	Consolidating
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows	Outflows	Negative Investor Sentiment
fear and Greed Index	Neutral	No Extreme Market Sentiment
Short-Term Holder Selling	Easing	Market Stabilization
Retail Investor Activity	Increasing	Improving Sentiment
MVRV Ratio	Below Previous Bull Cycle Levels	Upward Potential

Understanding Bitcoin’s Volatility: an Evergreen Perspective

Bitcoin’s price volatility is influenced by various factors beyond immediate market events. These include regulatory developments, technological advancements, and macroeconomic trends.

Did You Know? The block reward halving, which occurs approximately every four years, historically impacts Bitcoin’s supply and price dynamics. The next halving is expected.

Keeping informed about these long-term drivers can provide a more complete understanding of Bitcoin’s potential.

Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin

1. Why is bitcoin’s price consolidating around $97k?

   Bitcoin’s price is currently consolidating due to a combination of factors, including concerns over U.S. trade tariffs, persistent inflation data, and a generally cautious market mood.

2. How have trade tariffs affected Bitcoin demand?

   The prospect of reciprocal trade tariffs, particularly those potentially implemented, has increased investor caution in the crypto market, limiting demand for Bitcoin.

3. What does on-chain data suggest about Bitcoin’s potential?

   On-chain data indicates that selling pressure from short-term Bitcoin holders is easing, suggesting market stabilization and potential for recovery once sentiment improves.

4. Are retail investors showing more interest in Bitcoin?

   Yes, there’s growth in monthly retail investor activity, pointing to improving market sentiment and favoring near-term upside for Bitcoin.

5. What are the key levels to watch in Bitcoin’s technical analysis?

   Buyers need to rise above the 50 SMA and $100k to retest $106k. Should sellers take out the rising trendline support, this could open the door to $91.5k.

6. How do inflation concerns impact Bitcoin?

   Hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data have dampened expectations for Federal reserve rate cuts, impacting Bitcoin demand negatively.

What are your thoughts on the current Bitcoin price consolidation? Do you think it will break above $100k soon? Share your predictions and comments below!

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key Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Price

The question on every crypto investor’s mind: will Bitcoin (BTC) finally surpass the $100,000 mark? Several converging factors suggest a strong possibility, but navigating the volatile world of Bitcoin requires understanding thes influences. The current Bitcoin price is heavily influenced by supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and increasing institutional interest.

The Halving Effect & Scarcity

Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been notable catalysts for price increases.These events, occurring roughly every four years, reduce the reward miners receive for validating transactions, effectively decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This reduction in supply,coupled with consistent or increasing demand,naturally puts upward pressure on the price. The most recent halving in April 2024 is already being factored into market expectations.

institutional Adoption & ETF Impact

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024 marked a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency. These ETFs provide a regulated and accessible way for institutional investors and retail investors alike to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset. The influx of capital into these ETFs has been ample, significantly boosting demand and contributing to price thankfulness. Further institutional adoption, including potential investments from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, could accelerate this trend.

Macroeconomic Conditions & Inflation

Macroeconomic factors play a crucial role. Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation and a store of value, similar to gold. In times of economic uncertainty and rising inflation, investors frequently enough turn to choice assets like Bitcoin to preserve their wealth. Interest rate policies by central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, also impact Bitcoin’s price; lower rates generally make riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive.

Bitcoin Price Predictions: Expert Outlooks

Predicting the future price of bitcoin is inherently challenging, but several analysts have offered their perspectives. Here’s a snapshot of some recent forecasts:

Analyst/Firm	Prediction (End of 2025)	Rationale
Standard Chartered	$150,000	Increased ETF inflows and continued institutional adoption.
ARK Invest (Cathie Wood)	$1,000,000 (Long-Term)	Bitcoin’s potential as a global,decentralized store of value.
JP Morgan	$82,000	ETF demand and halving cycle impact, but tempered by macroeconomic headwinds.
Bloomberg Intelligence	$120,000	Growing acceptance and integration into conventional financial systems.