A recent poll published by Correio da Manhã reveals the Social Democratic Party (PS) has gained significant ground, while the Center Democratic Party (AD) fell to third place, according to a survey conducted by the Portuguese polling institute CEP. The findings, released on June 18, 2026, mark a pivotal shift in Portugal’s political landscape as voters increasingly favor the PS over the AD, which has long been a dominant force in the country’s center-right spectrum.
Historical Context of AD and PS Performance
The AD, led by Prime Minister António Costa until 2024, had maintained a consistent lead in national polls for over a decade. However, the latest survey shows the party at 28%, down from 35% in the previous quarter, while the PS climbed to 32%, up from 26%. This represents the first time since 2019 that the PS has overtaken the AD in a national poll, according to Jornal de Notícias.
Historically, the AD’s decline follows a pattern seen in other European center-right parties, such as Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which faced similar voter attrition amid shifting economic priorities. “The AD’s struggle reflects a broader trend where traditional parties lose traction to more progressive or populist alternatives,” said political scientist Dr. Maria Fernandes of the University of Lisbon.
“Portugal’s electorate is increasingly drawn to the PS’s focus on social welfare and climate policy, which resonates with younger voters and urban populations.”
Economic Factors Influencing Voter Shifts
The shift in popularity coincides with growing public concern over inflation and housing affordability. Portugal’s consumer price index rose 5.8% year-on-year in May 2026, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), exacerbating dissatisfaction with the AD’s economic policies. The PS, meanwhile, has emphasized progressive tax reforms and expanded public housing initiatives, which align with voter priorities.
“The AD’s inability to address rising living costs has alienated middle-class voters,” said economist João Silva, a former advisor to the European Commission.
“The PS’s pragmatic approach to economic challenges has positioned it as a credible alternative, particularly in regions hardest hit by austerity measures.”
The survey also highlights regional disparities, with the PS gaining support in Lisbon and Porto, while the AD retains strength in rural Alentejo and the Algarve.
Political Implications and Future Outlook
The poll’s implications are significant for Portugal’s upcoming legislative elections, scheduled for 2027. Analysts suggest the PS’s momentum could disrupt the traditional two-party dominance of the AD and the left-wing Socialist Party (PS). “This isn’t
