PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) is projected to post a net profit of US$ 50 million in 2026, scaling to US$ 94 million in 2027 and US$ 210 million in 2028, according to research by KB Valbury Sekuritas.
Here is the math.
The Bottom Line
- Earnings Trajectory: Net income is forecasted to remain flat at US$ 50 million in 2026 before expanding YoY to US$ 94 million in 2027, and jumping to US$ 210 million by 2028.
- Operational Hurdles: Q2 2026 revenue dropped 62.1% quarter-on-quarter to US$ 26 million, resulting in a net loss of US$ 5 million due to domestic oversupply and pushback activities at the River Reef asset.
- Growth Catalysts: Longer-term profitability will rely heavily on carbon-in-leach (CIL) plant expansions and upcoming underground mining operations managed by subsidiary Citra Palu Minerals.
Recalibrating Gold Assumptions and Production Timelines
The updated valuation framework issued by KB Valbury Sekuritas analyst Ashalia Fitri Yuliana reflects a pragmatic stance on commodity pricing and operational velocity. According to research released in August 2026, the brokerage revised its gold price assumptions to US$ 4,400 per ounce for 2026, US$ 4,450 per ounce for 2027, and US$ 4,500 per ounce for 2028. These figures frame an environment where input costs and lower average selling prices have temporarily squeezed margins.
Production recovery at BRMS has lagged initial expectations following a weak first half of 2026. Domestic oversupply conditions, paired with necessary pushback activities at the River Reef project operated by Citra Palu Minerals, forced output down by 57.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Consequently, the firm relied on previously stockpiled ore to sustain operations, exacerbating margin compression.
That operational bottleneck directly impacted top-line figures. Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 retreated to US$ 26 million, representing a 62.1% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 54.3% drop compared to the same period in the previous year. This contraction dragged the company into a net loss of US$ 5 million for the quarter.
| Metric | Q2 2026 (Actual) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | US$ 26 million | — | — | — |
| Net Profit / (Loss) | (US$ 5 million) | US$ 50 million | US$ 94 million | US$ 210 million |
| Assumed Gold Price | — | US$ 4,400 / oz | US$ 4,450 / oz | US$ 4,500 / oz |
Infrastructure Expansion as the Primary Valuation Driver
Despite near-term volatility, the multi-year investment case rests firmly on processing capacity additions. As detailed in the institutional research, the anticipated earnings acceleration in 2027 and 2028 stems directly from the ongoing expansion of carbon-in-leach (CIL) processing facilities. These methods improve recovery rates and optimize gold extraction efficiency from ore bodies.
Furthermore, capital allocation toward underground mining projects is scheduled to come online as a structural performance driver. Transitioning from open-pit extraction to underground operations allows BRMS to access higher-grade ore bodies, mitigating the volume constraints that plagued recent quarterly throughput.
For institutional holders, the focus remains on execution risk regarding the CIL plant timelines and whether underground development stays on schedule.
