2024-01-08 16:26:00
Brokers look at PTTEP’s budget differently. KGI sees 2023 profits as new highs after increasing extra profits. Ready to increase profit target for 2024-25 from investment in wind energy projects, while Bualuang expects final profit this year to decrease 22% from last year, but Q1/2024 profits are likely to decrease. As for the overall picture for 2024, the outlook for global oil demand will be good and continue to expand. UOB expects strong first-line profits this year, recommending both hold and buy.
KGI expects 2023 profits to hit new highs, ready to increase 2024-2025 targets.
Securities analysis from KGI Securities (Thailand) revealed that it has raised its 2023 profit forecast for PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP) by another 3% to 75.8 billion baht, a record high. new This is due to an additional profit of approximately USD 60 million from the sale of the Cash & Maple petroleum exploration project in 4Q23F.
It also raised its profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 by 1% to 64.0 billion baht and 55.1 billion baht, respectively, from the latest investment in wind power projects.
As for net profit in 4Q23, it will be 17.4 billion baht (+11% YoY, -4% QoQ), with profits increasing YoY but decreasing QoQ due to losses from asset impairment of approximately $125 million. in Q4/2023, resulting from the postponement of the COD of the Mozambique project by 1 year to 1H 2028, although the company recorded an extra profit of approximately USD 60 million from the sale of the Cash & Maple petroleum exploration project in Q4/23. This compares to a special loss of $334 million in Q4/22.
But if special items are not included It is expected that profits from PTTEP’s core business in Q4/23 will decrease both YoY and QoQ due to increased unit costs and decreased crude oil prices. We recommend Hold with a target price of 165 baht.
Bualuang sees Q4/66 profits shrinking 22%, still recommends buying.
Bualuang Securities expects that overall in 2024, the trend of world oil demand will be good and continue to expand and OPEC+ will continue to cut production capacity, which is expected to help the world oil price stay around $80.
However, the Q1/2024 trend is expected that the main profit trend will decrease YoY from a normal decrease in sales volume and higher average costs, and profits will decrease QoQ from a lower average selling price. (according to market price)
For Q4/2023 core profit forecast of PTTEP at 21.8 billion baht, down 22% YoY (sales volume and Average selling price decreased) but increased 15% QoQ due to seasonal increases in sales volume. Plus the average cost per unit decreased.
Recommended to buy with a target price of 212 baht.
UOB states that 2023 profits will grow 6%, expecting strong first quarter profits this year.
UOB Kay Hian Securities Core profit in 4Q23 is expected to remain strong at 16.5 billion baht, down 9% QoQ due to large losses from special items. But core profit in 4Q23 still increased 4% QoQ due to increased sales volume. As a result, net profit for the whole year 2023 still grew 6% yoy.
However, core profits in 1Q24 are expected to be strong from increased sales estimates. The increase in crude oil prices due to unrest in the Middle East will continue to support this factor. We recommend BUY with a target price of 200 baht.
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