2023-10-13 13:20:00
In the La Libre/RTBF survey, the scores achieved by the Dutch-speaking linguistic role parties are particularly striking in the Brussels Region. The N-VA (5.3%) would come first in the 2024 elections. Bart De Wever’s party would be followed by Vlaams Belang (4.2%), tied with Groen (4.2%).
Open VLD follows with 3.3%, ahead of Vooruit (1.3%).
The results of our survey in Brussels ©IPM Graphics
The vote of Dutch-speaking voters follows, and this is not at all usual, the same trend in the Brussels Region as in Flanders. The figures for the Dutch-speaking parties must, however, be analyzed with more caution given that the sample of respondents is smaller in Brussels.
In terms of seats, according to projections from the Center for Socio-Political Research and Information (Crisp), the N-VA would collect 5 seats and thus gain two seats compared to 2019. Vlaams Belang will obtain 4 seats, three more than in 2019.
According to these projections, the two nationalist parties would only be one seat away from the majority in the Dutch linguistic role in 2024…
Groen would lose one MP and would only have 3 left, as would the Open VLD. Vooruit and the PVDA would be satisfied with one seat while the CD&V would disappear from the Brussels Parliament… “We must be particularly careful with the results and the projection on the Dutch-speaking side because the number of people surveyed is very small, specifies Crisp however. But also because there remains a big unknown in relation to the lists which will be present and the possible groupings of lists. The number of lists was much greater in 2019 than what the survey shows, which explains the existence of a significant reservoir of votes here.”
The signal, however, is cause for concern among French-speaking parties, especially on the left. If the rise of Vlaams Belang to the Brussels government seems excluded due to the existence of the cordon santé, this is not the case for the N-VA.
Rudi Vervoort does not rule out governing with the N-VA
Rudi Vervoort (PS), interviewed by La Libre in January 2023, did not exclude the scenario of a government bringing together PS and N-VA in the Brussels-Capital Region. “If we have no choice, how else can we do it? We are not going to block our institutions, emphasized the Brussels Minister-President. This is one of the possible scenarios for Brussels, and I fully accept saying this, because it is mathematical. And that’s not my choice.”
Indeed, in the Brussels Region, each linguistic group has its own autonomy to form a majority. In other words, the Dutch speakers form their majority, the French speakers do the same, and together they come together to form the Brussels government, without in theory one being able to have a say in the choice of the other.
In this diagram, the N-VA appears increasingly difficult to circumvent in Brussels, given its rise in power and the weakening of its competitors.
This survey was carried out by the Kantar institute via an online survey from September 10 to October 9 among 436 voters living in Wallonia, 566 voters living in Flanders and 545 voters living in Brussels with the right to vote in the 2024 national elections. Their representativeness was weighted according to the Belgian population according to age, level of education, professional status and province. The maximum margin of error is 4.4% in all three regions.
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