2023-10-05 10:17:00
In terms of public finances, the year 2023 is, a priori, a winning bet. But according to experts and economists, the year 2024 will be even more difficult, because the question of financing the state budget has not been resolved.
Certainly, 2023 was not an easy year economically. But given the bad situation in which public finances find themselves, Tunisia was able to get out of it, not without pain. It managed to repay nearly 74% of its external debt, at a time when non-payment was the fear that horrifies economic players.
Without an agreement with the IMF, one of the hypotheses underlying the 2023 FL, the feat was improbable. But it is still early to declare victory: according to experts and economists, the year 2024 will be even more difficult, because the question of financing the state budget has not been resolved. Really, what choices are available to Tunisia which, attached to its economic sovereignty, opposes a categorical refusal to the dictates of the leader of the donors, in this case the IMF which conditions the release of its loan by painful reforms on a social level, and in doing so, exposes itself to the risk of being cut off from external financing?
In this case, will the government continue the same austere budgetary policy which will probably not be without effect on the economy as a whole? This means that mobilizing resources to finance the state budget for the year 2024, and achieving a balanced budget, will not be an easy task. “Without an agreement with the IMF, it is difficult to have the necessary fiscal space which will allow the State to play its economic role via the establishment, for example, of tax incentives and lines of credit but also of stimulate investments which are one of the levers of growth,” explained, in this regard, economic expert Abdelkader Boudriga, during an interview on private radio.
Does a policy of rigor harm to the economy?
But there may be alternatives. In any case, this is what Skander Sellami, president of the Tunisian Association for Fiscal Governance, said in a statement given to The Press that to have more financing resources, the State can work to improve the performance of public companies and to increase non-tax resources, coming from the export of phosphates and the recovery of tourist activity.
Also, the government can, according to the expert, work on optimizing the fiscal potential of economic actors, by increasing the volume of the economy through the implementation of simple measures aimed, for example , to reduce bureaucracy. But remaining on a policy of austerity while tightening the screw will, according to Sellami, have an impact on the activity of various sectors and seize up the cogs of the economy. Can the State then resort to direct financing by the BCT or to domestic debt? Here too it is a delicate balancing act that the government risks engaging in where inflationary excesses and the crowding out effect exerted on SMEs would be the evil to be contained.
Incentives and news planned measures
But despite the financial difficulties facing the country, the Ministry of Finance is getting away with it: for the sake of fiscal stability, the 2024 Finance bill does not provide for new taxes.
This is reassuring for SMEs, whose newly created ones could benefit from a tax exemption for a period of three years from next year. Other measures in favor of electric mobility will also be integrated.
In a statement given to La Presse, the director general in charge of regional development within the Ministry of Economy and Planning, Samir Lazaar, said that the PLF 2024 will give pride of place to the agricultural sector with the emphasis placed on the mobilization of water resources.
It also provides for the start of several regional development projects programmed by the 2023-2025 three-year plan such as the highway linking Tunis Jelma and the deep water port of Enfidha, with the focus on the fight against regional inequalities. .
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