California’s proposed one-time wealth tax on the state’s ultra-wealthy is in a close race and may not pass by Tuesday, according to the latest voter polling. Proposition 40 would impose a 5% levy on all billionaires residing in the state, but shifting public opinion and an aggressive opposition campaign have altered the trajectory of the ballot measure.
Back in May, polling from the Public Policy Institute of California found that 54% of state voters supported the wealth tax, while 45% opposed it. However, momentum has shifted significantly in the final weeks of the campaign. A subsequent Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 22 reported that support had dropped to 46%, with 52% of respondents intending to vote no.
A separate poll conducted by the University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies from Oct. 19 to Oct. 25 reflected an even wider margin against the measure, showing just 42% in favor and 50% opposed. Approximately 200 billionaires across the state would be affected if the tax measure succeeds, according to the San Jose Spotlight.
Billionaires Outspend Measure Proponents by Massive Margin
The dramatic shift in public opinion aligns with a massive spending campaign waged by opponents of the measure. Building a Better California, funded by Google’s Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt alongside several other billionaires, has heavily outspent proponents of Proposition 40 by a margin of 250 to 1, according to the Washington Post. The committee has raised $379 million and spent approximately $148 million to saturate television ad spaces across California, according to the same reporting.
The primary argument pushed by opponents is that passing Proposition 40 could pave the way for state lawmakers to target non-billionaires with similar tax structures in the future. Proponents, meanwhile, designed the measure to direct roughly 90% of the generated revenue toward Medi-Cal, California’s Medicaid program, according to KQED, with the remaining 10% designated for food assistance and education-related initiatives.
Opponents also placed two additional measures on the ballot—Proposition 41 and Proposition 42—which function as poison pills designed to legally negate Proposition 40 should it pass. Recent polling indicates these companion measures are also running tight races, with the Public Policy Institute of California showing Proposition 41 tracking at 48% yes and 49% no, and Proposition 42 tracking at 51% yes and 47% no.
Establishment Opposition and Divergent Views Among the Wealthy
Opposition to the billionaire tax extends across establishment political lines. Outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom, who is termed out and scheduled to leave office in January 2027, has voiced opposition to the tax. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra has likewise opposed the measure.
Critics of the tax argue that imposing a one-time levy could prompt wealthy residents to flee the state, potentially damaging California’s broader economy. Supporters counter that such threats are largely empty, noting that historic warnings of mass exoduses following tax proposals rarely materialize and that the wealthy possess the financial means to absorb increased rates.
While prominent tech leaders and executives have poured immense sums into defeating the measure, not all billionaires share the same stance. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose net worth is estimated at $170 billion, recently told CBS Sunday Morning that he views substantial tax obligations differently. “The fact that I can afford to pay $8 billion in taxes over five years is a privilege,” Huang said during the interview. “I’m not afraid of paying taxes. I’m just afraid of being poor.”
