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The California Senate race is reaching its climax for Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) as she strives to secure a second-place position and advance into November’s runoff, known as the state’s “top two” primary. Polling indicates that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is leading the pack of candidates, while Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are closely vying for the second spot. Regardless of party affiliation, all candidates will be placed on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters moving forward to November.
However, low voter turnout poses a threat to Porter’s congressional career, as data shows that the voters casting their ballots are older and predominantly white. This demographic could potentially push Garvey into the runoff with Schiff, leading to a red-blue showdown.
Democratic strategist Kate Maeder, based in California, believes that this race has always been Adam Schiff’s to lose, and the low turnout certainly benefits the frontrunner. Older, white voters who have seen Schiff on CNN and MSNBC for years make up the majority of voters in this election, giving Schiff a built-in advantage.
The California Senate candidates, including Schiff, Porter, Garvey, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), are vying for a full term that was previously held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), temporarily filled by Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), who chose not to run for a full term.
The four Senate front-runners are among the 27 candidates running for the seat, which begins in January. Additionally, they are among the seven candidates running in a special election to determine who will temporarily take over from Butler and serve until November, when the next term commences.
Schiff holds a substantial war chest, starting the year with nearly $35 million in the bank. His high name recognition as the lead House impeachment manager during former President Trump’s first trial and his involvement in the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot have further solidified his position.
Porter, known for her iconic whiteboard presentations during committee hearings and for flipping a red Orange County House seat to blue in 2018, started the year with a smaller but still significant cash on hand of $13 million.
On the other hand, Lee, who has a history of volunteering for the Black Panthers and occasionally diverging from her party, has been behind in both polls and fundraising. She began the year with less than $1 million in her campaign funds.
Democratic strategist Maclen Zilber acknowledges that Schiff’s high profile and financial advantage over his opponents have contributed to his positive standing in most public polls. In a state where it takes a considerable amount of money to sway voters even slightly, being significantly outspent makes it challenging for other candidates to gain ground.
A poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) in collaboration with The Los Angeles Times reveals that 27 percent of likely voters support Garvey, 25 percent support Schiff, 19 percent support Porter, 8 percent support Lee, and 12 percent back other candidates. Undecided likely voters account for an additional 9 percent. Since the margin of error is 2 percentage points and the Garvey-Schiff split falls within that range, the two candidates are essentially tied.
Another poll by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill, released a day earlier, showed Schiff leading at 28 percent, Garvey at 20 percent, Porter at 17 percent, and Lee at 8 percent. The survey indicated that 17 percent of voters remained undecided.
One variable that has disrupted the primary is the low turnout. Data from Political Data Intelligence (PDI), a research firm that compiles California’s turnout data, reveals that only 11 percent of the state’s mail-in ballots had been returned by Friday. Among the returned ballots, 25 percent came from voters aged 65 and older, and 14 percent were from white voters. These demographics are more likely to lean toward Garvey rather than Porter. In contrast, only 3 percent of voters aged 18 to 34 and 5 percent of voters aged 35 to 49 have cast their ballots so far. Additionally, 10 percent of Asian voters and 9 percent of African American voters have voted.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of PDI, finds it concerning that this election could potentially have the lowest turnout in the state’s history. He also highlights the alarming age divide, emphasizing the large discrepancy in the percentages of older voters to younger voters.
Porter has expressed concerns that the low turnout, combined with her strength among younger voters who typically do not show up in low turnout contests, could prevent her from being on the runoff ballot against Schiff in November.
Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin, who has worked with prominent figures like California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), cautions against interpreting the turnout data too definitively. He notes that early voters are usually older. Nevertheless, the overall lower turnout certainly poses a more challenging path for Porter.
The older, whiter turnout observed in this primary could potentially make it easier for Republican candidate Garvey to secure a spot alongside Schiff in the top two. Recognizing the competitiveness of the race, Schiff and a super PAC supporting him have started emphasizing Garvey in their ads, hoping to push Porter into third place. In response, Porter’s campaign has been promoting GOP candidate Eric Early, which could potentially harm Garvey’s chances and elevate Porter into second place.
Porter’s campaign has criticized Schiff for boosting Garvey in the primary, while Schiff has accused Porter of being hypocritical for using a similar tactic. Political strategists largely anticipate that a Democrat-Republican runoff would favor Schiff, which explains the push to eliminate Porter from the running.
However, amid the ongoing political maneuvering, experts believe that Schiff’s strategy to boost Garvey’s candidacy for an easier race in November