Schools and public services closed, heavily disrupted subways and trains, planes grounded, refineries on strike… the day of this Tuesday, March 7 promises to be particularly difficult for users. Especially since the truckers have joined the dance, and have been organizing filter blockages and roadblocks since Sunday evening.
More than 200 rallies are planned in France this Tuesday. In Paris, the procession will go from Sèvres Babylone to Place d’Italie. The unions, united in inter-union, are throwing all their forces into the battle against the pension reform, calling for “putting France to a halt”.
The inter-union is holding up…
For the time being, the agreement between all the unions has not cracked, contrary to the bet made behind the scenes by the government at the start of the conflict. Between a CFDT accustomed to negotiation, and a reputable diehard CGT, the executive did not think that the agreement between Laurent Berger and Philippe Martinez would hold.
Bad calculation: the two union leaders remain united in their fight against the reform, the two men respect each other and have no trouble agreeing and finding compromises.
After demonstrating together again on Tuesday, they should also meet with the leaders of the other power plants to record a new day of action, probably on Saturday March 11. “History to end the week”, according to one of them. But above all to allow the self-employed, private employees, families, to take to the streets, to express their opposition, as a month ago, on Saturday February 11.
… For now
It prevents. The closer we get to the CGT Congress scheduled for the end of March in Clermont-Ferrand, the more the positions of the union’s ultras (energy, transport federations, etc.) become more radical, with calls for an even tougher little more movement. Sometimes by putting themselves on the sidelines of the legality, which the reformist unions contest. Example: this weekend, the representative of the Chemistry Federation called on the strikers to put ” France on its knees “. Words that were not appreciated on the side of the CFDT. But which clearly reflect the difficulties of Philippe Martinez, the outgoing secretary general of the Montreuil plant, in maintaining the cohesion of his troops. Maybe it’s about union unity. If slippages take place, the inter-union could indeed experience turbulence.
Divisions may also appear in the strategy to be adopted vis-à-vis parliamentarians examining the reform project. Laurent Berger continues to meet the leaders of the various political parties (with the exception of the National Rally), to hope to influence the text. This Wednesday, he will exchange with the Republicans. A way of doing things that the CGT does not share, hostile to discussions with elected officials opposed to their point of view. And if the temptation exists for a rapprochement with members of the NUPES, the CFDT does not want to hear about it, in the name of the separation between social democracy and political democracy.
Inflation, brake or engine of the strike
The unions have been preparing for these March days for a long time. In recent weeks, they have set up strike funds to help those who will stop working. The amounts of these funds are not disclosed but they represent several thousand euros.
Central know that inflation, including food, may limit the inclination of employees to disengage. On the contrary, the government hopes that it will slow down the duration of the movement.
However, according to Frédéric Souillot, General Secretary of Force Ouvrière, “ if people take to the streets against the pension reform, it is because it is also a catalyst for the problems of wages and the standard of living of workers. This argument can therefore also function as a driver of protest.
Public opinion, in support… but until when?
Today, the majority of French people say they are against raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 years old. For the moment, public opinion is rather favorable to the strikers, believing that the executive remains deaf to peaceful demonstrations which bring together up to a million people.
But will public opinion be so lenient when it has to wait hours to refuel, or manage children because schools remain closed? This is the big unknown both on the side of the government and the unions.
The executive is, however, betting that after a week of trouble, the French will quickly dissociate themselves from the dispute. Gabriel Attal, the Minister of Public Accounts, explained this weekend that the French who toil would quickly be exasperated by the blockages. In the meantime, the text is following its parliamentary path and is being examined in the Senate this week. Article 7, very controversial of the passage of the age from 62 to 64 years, should be voted at the latest this Wednesday.
For their part, the centrals claim to have the very broad support of the population, which as a whole is affected by this bill. They also hope to take advantage of the government’s communication difficulties around this reform. In particular, scrambles around 1,200 euros for small pensions, or the retirement of mothers…
One thing is certain: public opinion will certainly very quickly be the true justice of the peace following the dispute.