2024-04-30 08:30:00
He plan Caputo stabilization of the macroeconomy became the pillar of the relationship maintained by the Government of Javier Miley with the Red circlewho, however, distrustful of V recovery of activity in the short term and delay your investments, waiting for the results of the ministerial design to be sustained over time. The head of the Treasury Palace went to the Stock Exchange to convince them to abandon that inflexibility and try to get something more concrete than just the support and applause of the business audience. Did not achieve the goalbut he moved easily.
The minister Luis Caputo asked businessmen and women to bet on the recovery of activity, starting from investments that move the ammeter of the economy, given the lack of fresh dollars from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the delay in the renegotiation of a new program of indebtedness. The non-negotiable fiscal adjustment and the close to a return to international credit markets Faced with a still high interest rate, it generated two moments of applause from the public. It happens that stability is the model that the establishment to design their business model, even though in the process they meet their members They ratified their conservative intention.
Caputo defended his management in front of businessmen: “We were going towards hyperinflation and a terminal crisis”
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“There is no change in expectations, but in facts. If we can convince you that there is an opportunity, we will achieve a great goal. Recovery comes from the micro. We order the macro,” Caputo insisted, in the conversation that took place within the framework of the work meeting organized by the Mediterranean Foundation. In the front row, There were only three representatives of the Group of Six (G6): the host Adelmo Gabbipresident of the Stock Exchange; Gustavo Weiss, from the Argentine Chamber of Construction (Camarco); and Marcos Peredavice president of the Argentine Rural Society (SRA).
The crisis of the micro and the victory of the macro
The head of the Treasury Palace anticipated a “surprising” drop in core inflation in April, ruled out a delay in the exchange rate real and ensured stability, based on fiscal balance. “We are in an excellent moment for a rapid recovery and to convince that stability is here to stay,” he told them. The downside, despite the enthusiasm for the model, was the moderate expectation of a quick exit from the recession: “There is still a drop in activity and we see a couple more months in this situation. We understand the minister’s enthusiasm, but consumption continues to plummet“, he told PROFILE one of the business leaders gathered at the Stock Exchange.
In fact, Caputo once again pointed out what Milei told the owners of large companies at the Llao Llao Forum: “We stabilize the macro. “You have to take care of the micro”. There wasn’t much consensus there. The industrial entrepreneur Jose Urtubey He clarified that the dissonance between these two parameters should be canceled. “It is important that we can work, jointly, on ways to bring together the organization of the macroeconomy with the microeconomics.”because it is necessary to get out of the recession,” he stated, in dialogue with this medium.
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Happens that In the industry the climate is “heated”as defined by a member of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA). At the conclave where Caputo spoke the absence was noted “due to family commitment” (as indicated by those around him) Daniel Funes from Riojapresident of the manufacturing entity, who last week was forced to show the underlying tensions between industrialists due to the depression in sales and the collapse of the installed capacity of the factories.
Field speculation, in Caputo mode
“There is a speculative factor in producers and cereal companies that is natural. “We try, with stability, to reduce this speculation as much as possible,” Caputo stated. before the business audience. Chacarera sources, consulted by PROFILEregretted that definition, although they clarified that, currently, Although there is no distrust in the stabilization plan, conservatism will be maintained in grain settlement. “We do not see a devaluation in the short term, but It is still too early for producers to get rid of all their holdings. without measuring consequences,” clarified the same source, strictly off the record.
The former CEO of FIAT and president of the Modena Group, Cristiano RattazziI affirm that Investments will arrive with enthusiasm when the exchange rate is eliminatedbut admitted that “the Government takes into account that The international reserves of the Central Bank are not necessary to face a possible exchange rate run, which causes that decision to be delayed more than necessary.” “The conditions are not in place for a bullfight, but that possibility cannot be ignored,” he clarified, in dialogue with PROFILEthe businessman based in Uruguay.
The minimum wage fell more than 34% and its real value is below the 2001 level
The red circle also trusts in money laundering “with clear and stable rules” to repatriate dollars from abroad. Even so, businessmen will continue waiting for new signals to advance investments, both in dollars and pesos. The confirmed Caputo plan extended positive expectations, but they maintained their doubts about social support of the measures. “If there is no recovery, it is difficult to go through it in time,” another businessman told this medium. To the V or the U as an anti-recession plan, now the “Nike Pipe” has been addedwith a continuity of the crisis before a moderate reactivation.
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