2023-12-29 22:15:41

} Ahmed Bahja*
It was not surprising that OPEC did not change its somewhat optimistic expectations for the growth of demand for oil in the year 2024, despite all the crises and wars raging in more than one region of the world, especially in the Middle East, where the war is becoming more intense, especially with the very important developments taking place in Bab al-Mandab. As for the war in Ukraine, although it is still ongoing, interest in it has declined to levels of less importance.
The OPEC monthly report issued a few days ago indicated that oil demand expectations were balanced thanks to the strong growth data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries in the Americas, especially Canada, in addition to upward revisions to demand in China and Asia, which offset the downward revisions in the Middle East and Africa during the period. The last two quarters of 2023.
OPEC indicated cautious optimism regarding the fundamental factors affecting the oil market during the year 2024, explaining that the recovery of China’s economy is a major driver of global demand growth, in contrast to the American economy, where it is expected to witness some slowdown in economic growth compared to inflation and unemployment.
There is also a relatively revived Indian economy, which may contribute to the stability of oil markets, and even to raising levels of global demand, which means that the economies of Asia at this stage are the locomotive that leads the global economy towards achieving some growth in times of wars and complex crises.
There is also an additional basic reason for what was mentioned, which is that the OPEC member states had previously agreed more than once to make fundamental reductions in the volume of production, which helped prevent an oil boom in global markets, and thus these markets now need to pump some quantities. Extra oil in her arteries.
What is more important than the agreement to reduce production successively is evident in the ability of OPEC to implement its decisions despite the strong opposition from the United States, which wanted to keep production ceilings high so that prices would be negatively affected, which leads to the loss of the Russian economy, one of the most important factors that provides it the ability to continue. The war in Ukraine despite all the Atlantic support provided to Kiev, which is beginning to dry up these days…
First, because the war in the Middle East has advanced to the forefront of global and Western attention in particular, and the tendency of the United States and its allies to support the “Israeli” enemy more, which confirms what many experts and insiders say that the decision to continue the war once morest Palestine, Lebanon, and the axis of resistance is American, not “Israeli.” ».
Secondly, because this same West has exhausted most of its financial, armament and logistical reserves in supporting Ukraine without achieving any significant results in the face of Russia, which continues to score points in its favor…
And here the West itself is depleting what remains in its stock of money, ammunition, and equipment, and therefore the day is not far off when we will find that the United States and its real and imaginary countries, forces, and alliances here and there are unable to continue supporting the Zionist enemy entity, which we see without a doubt has put its foot down. On the road to the end and disappearance…

*Financial and economic expert

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