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The West Coast is bracing for another round of significant precipitation, with a potent atmospheric river poised to deliver heavy rain and mountain snow beginning this week. Following a relatively dry start to February, the shift in weather patterns signals a return to the active conditions that characterized much of winter 2024 and early 2025. This renewed threat of storms comes as communities continue to recover from previous flooding and landslide events, and as the region assesses the impact of a strong El Niño pattern that began to dissipate in 2024.
The incoming system is expected to impact California, Oregon, and Washington, bringing the potential for widespread flooding, travel disruptions, and increased avalanche risk in the mountains. While the exact track and intensity of the storm are still being refined, forecasters are confident that a prolonged period of wet weather is on the horizon. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is closely monitoring the situation, and local authorities are urging residents to prepare for potential impacts. Understanding the evolving weather patterns, particularly the interplay between El Niño and the California Current, is crucial for anticipating and mitigating these risks.
El Niño’s Influence and the Return of Upwelling
The current weather shift follows a complex period influenced by El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA Fisheries, the strong El Niño pattern that dominated in 2024 has begun to yield to upwelling in the California Current. NOAA’s California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment reported that despite the initial delay, the spring upwelling was strong enough to fuel the West Coast ecosystem and improve environmental conditions for salmon. This upwelling process brings nutrient-rich water to the surface, supporting marine life and contributing to a more productive ecosystem.
However, the legacy of El Niño continues to play a role. As explained by Maven’s Notebook, El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to parts of California, but the relationship isn’t always straightforward. The warmer waters associated with El Niño can lead to atmospheric rivers – concentrated bands of moisture in the atmosphere – that deliver heavy rainfall and snow. These storms can also trigger landslides and flooding, as seen in previous El Niño years. The California Coastal Commission notes that El Niño years are often marked by severe winter storms and increased erosion.
Current Forecast and Potential Impacts
The approaching storm system is expected to bring significant rainfall to coastal areas and heavy snowfall to the mountains. The precise amounts will vary depending on location and elevation, but widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches of rain are possible in many areas. Mountain areas could see several feet of snow, creating hazardous travel conditions and increasing the risk of avalanches. The potential for flooding is particularly concerning in areas that have already experienced saturated soils from previous storms.
Beyond the immediate impacts of rain and snow, the storm could also lead to coastal erosion and high surf. The California Coastal Commission advises coastal residents to take steps to prepare for potential flooding and erosion. The combination of heavy precipitation and potential runoff could also impact water quality in rivers and streams. Authorities are advising residents to avoid unnecessary travel during the storm and to be prepared for power outages.
Looking Ahead: El Niño and Future Weather Patterns
While the current El Niño pattern is weakening, there is increasing discussion about the potential for its return later in 2026. The New York Times reported on February 12, 2026, that NOAA is forecasting a possible return of El Niño, which could influence both spring and hurricane seasons. This potential resurgence underscores the complex and dynamic nature of the climate system and the importance of ongoing monitoring and preparedness. The interplay between El Niño, La Niña (the opposite phase characterized by cooler waters), and the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to be a key focus for climate scientists.
The West Coast will continue to experience fluctuating weather conditions as these patterns evolve. Residents are encouraged to stay informed about the latest forecasts and heed the advice of local authorities. Continued monitoring of ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions will be crucial for anticipating future weather events and mitigating their impacts.
Please share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below. How is your community preparing for the incoming storms?
