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Venture debt loan valuations are increasingly diverging from other corporate lending strategies in private credit, with a significant rise in distressed debt, according to recent data. As of the third quarter of 2025, 24% of venture debt loans were marked at least 20% below their principal value – a benchmark typically indicating borrower financial difficulty – more than double the 9% recorded in the first quarter of 2022.
The trend contrasts sharply with private credit funds focused on opportunistic and direct lending, where write-downs have been more moderate. These funds experienced rates of both moderate and severe write-downs roughly one-third lower than those observed in venture debt portfolios as of Q3 2025.
This divergence is reflected in fund performance. Venture debt posted a quarterly return of -1.5% in Q3 2025, while direct lending and opportunistic strategies reported positive returns, indicating that write-downs are impacting overall strategy performance. The broader private equity market saw a nearly 43% jump in transaction value in Q3 2025, according to S&P Global, but this growth has not extended to the venture debt sector.
Initial analysis might point to technology sector exposure as a primary driver of the distress, given that IT represents nearly 40% of the net asset value in venture debt, compared to 19% for direct lending and 7% for opportunistic funds. However, the recent wave of write-downs in venture debt has been largely attributed to health-care borrowers, while technology loans have shown below-average rates of distress.
This disparity suggests the issue is not sector-wide. Borrowers in the health-care sector financed by direct lending and opportunistic funds have experienced significantly lower write-down rates than their venture-backed counterparts. A recent report from McKinsey & Company highlighted a tougher terrain for private equity, but did not specifically address the divergence within the venture debt market.
Despite the current resilience of technology loans within venture debt portfolios, growing concerns within the IT sector could potentially exacerbate the situation. A substantial increase in distress within the technology sector could compound the existing write-downs, given the strategy’s significant exposure. Some institutional investors are already expressing caution towards private equity, according to reports from cepr.net, though the specific impact on venture debt remains to be seen.
Recent activity also indicates increasing concerns about “bad PIKs” – payment-in-kind loans – showing “cracks” in the corporate debt market, as reported by Fortune. While not exclusively tied to venture debt, this trend suggests a broader tightening in credit conditions that could further pressure valuations.
MSCI has noted the deteriorating health of venture debt loan marks, but has not issued a comprehensive analysis of the underlying causes. As of February 18, 2026, no official statements have been released regarding potential interventions or adjustments to valuation methodologies.