Fresh figures published this year by the Census Bureau illustrate a nation undergoing profound transformation, with approximately two out of three American counties currently reporting a higher number of deaths than newborns.
The United States has long been an anomaly among developed nations. Over the past sixty years, the nation experienced dramatic expansion, fueled by a younger demographic profile and elevated birth rates compared to peer developed economies, alongside a greater openness to welcoming immigrants.
In 1960, the U.S. population stood at just over 179 million. Based on the Census Bureau’s latest projections as of July 2025, the total had climbed to approximately 342 million, representing a growth of nearly 163 million.
Why are nearly two-thirds of U.S. counties seeing more deaths than births?
Shifting demographic patterns reveal that nearly two-thirds of U.S. counties—specifically 2,055 out of 3,144—recorded more deaths than births between July 2024 and July 2025. Around half of these 2,055 counties managed to grow overall, but only because population losses from natural decrease were offset by domestic in-migration from other parts of the United States or international immigration.
The other half of those counties saw outright population declines. Most of the locations struggling with more deaths than births are long-depopulating rural areas.
However, a growing number of larger urban counties now face the exact same dynamic. St. Louis County, Missouri; Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, which is home to Pittsburgh; Onondaga County, New York, home to Syracuse; and Cuyahoga County, Ohio, home to Cleveland, regularly see more people die than be born each year.
Other large urban centers are on the verge of joining them. In Louisiana, Orleans Parish—whose borders are coterminous with New Orleans city limits—recorded a natural increase of merely 32 births over deaths across the twelve months leading up to July 1, 2025. Multnomah County, Oregon, home to Portland, logged only 223 more births than deaths during that same timeframe.
How has the racial and ethnic composition of the country shifted since 1960?
Over the same six decades that the population doubled, the country became much more diverse. In 1960, more than 8 in 10 people in the United States were white, and most of the non-white population was Black.
By 2025, Census Bureau data showed that the white population of the country dropped to 56 percent. Latinos and Asians, who combined made up just 6 percent of the population in 1960, accounted for 28 percent of America’s population by 2025.
Data suggests that these longstanding demographic patterns could shift in even more profound fashions. Because the nation is growing older and fertility rates are declining, a vast share of counties currently experience little to no demographic expansion driven by births.
At the same time, much more restrictive immigration policies could cause the country to experience net negative immigration for the first time since the Great Depression. This policy shift directly impacts a source of population growth that has kept many counties afloat until now.
Conversely, trends like the nation’s growing racial diversity may actually speed up. Older, whiter generational cohorts begin to leave the scene, portending rapid demographic changes in counties large and small throughout the country.
