The report also highlights that the process of recovery of the labor markets “has not made it possible to eliminate the traditional gaps between men and women” and that during 2022 “both an increase in informality and a fall in real wages have been observed”.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) reported Thursday that the economic slowdown in the region will deepen in 2023 and that the growth rate will be 1.3%, 0.1% less than the estimate last October.
The United Nations body explained that Venezuela will be the country that will lead in economic growth this year; and placed Chile, Cuba, Paraguay and Haiti in the lower part of that projection.
In 2023, meanwhile, in the opinion of ECLAC, our country will be the one that will show the least expansion (-1.1%).
Venezuela in the lead and Chile behind
Venezuela (12%), Panama (8.4%) and Colombia (8%) will lead economic growth this yearfollowed by Uruguay (5.4%), the Dominican Republic (5.1%) and Argentina (4.9%), according to the report.
In the middle of the table are the Caribbean islands (4.5%), Costa Rica (4.4%), Honduras (4.2%), Guatemala (4%), Nicaragua (3.8%), Bolivia (3.5%), Mexico (2.9%) and Brazil (2.9%).
In the tail are Ecuador (2.7%), Peru (2.7%), El Salvador (2.6%), Chile (2.3%), Cuba (2%), Paraguay (-0.3% ) and Haiti (-2%), according to the balance
By 2023, Venezuela continues to lead projections (5%)followed by the Dominican Republic (4.6%), Panama (4.2%), Paraguay (4%), the Caribbean islands (3.3%), Guatemala (3.2%), and Uruguay (2.9%) %), Bolivia (2.9%), Honduras (2.7%), Costa Rica (2.6%), Peru (2.2%), Nicaragua (2.1%) and Ecuador (2%).
The countries that will grow the least next year are, according to ECLAC, El Salvador (1.6%), Colombia (1.5%), Cuba (1.5%), Mexico (1.1%), Argentina ( 1%), Brazil (0.9%), Haiti (-0.7%) and Chile (-1.1%).
Panorama regional
ECLAC estimates that the regional GDP will close this year with an expansion of 3.7%, higher than the 3.6% forecast three months ago and far from the 6.7% registered in 2021.
According to the agency, the slowdown began in the second half of 2022 and reflects both “the depletion of the rebound effect in the 2021 recovery” and “the effects of restrictive monetary policies, greater limitations on fiscal spending, lower levels of consumption and investment and the deterioration of the external context”.
“The monetary policy responses adopted worldwide, in a context of increasing overall inflationhave caused increases in financial volatility and in the levels of risk aversion and, therefore, have induced lower capital flows to emerging economies”, indicated the institution.
In the Preliminary Balance of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 presented this Thursday, ECLAC points out, however, that “the reduction that is expected in global inflation for 2023 will tend to moderate the increases in monetary policy rates of the main central banks.
Avoid “another lost decade”
The report also highlights that the process of recovery of the labor markets “has not made it possible to eliminate the traditional gaps between men and women” and that during 2022 “both an increase in informality and a fall in real wages have been observed”.
Los Indebtedness levels also continue to be high“so it can be expected that fiscal space will continue to condition the trajectory of public spending.”
“The risk of increased interest rates, currency depreciation and greater sovereign risk would make it difficult to finance government operations in 2023,” the agency added.
To avoid a new lost decade like the one observed during the period 2014-2023, ECLAC calls for “innovative public policies in the productive, financial, commercial, social and care economy areas.”