The great Chinese maneuvers around Taiwan, during which warships surrounded the island, offered an unprecedented taste of what a real military campaign by Beijing against its neighbor would be like.
Beijing has also imposed economic sanctions and stepped up efforts to isolate Taipei from the rest of the world, moves that will permanently upend the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, experts warn.
Here are the lessons to be learned from the biggest military exercises ever organized by China around Taiwan, in retaliation for the visit to the island of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States Nancy Pelosi.
Is a blockade possible?
For the first time, the Chinese army conducted exercises on the eastern flank of Taiwan, a highly strategic area for supplying the island, and through which possible American reinforcements would arrive.
The signal is clear: Beijing can now prevent any entry or exit from the island of civilian or military ships and aircraft.
For a long time, analysts have predicted such a strategy on the part of China in the event of a war to conquer Taiwan.
“This crisis shows that Beijing is capable of repeating – and escalating – similar actions at will,” explains Christopher Twomey, security specialist at the California Naval Academy.
“But maintaining (a blockade) would be very costly, both for China’s reputation and for the finances of its military,” he nuances.
China’s current economic difficulties make it unlikely that it will take the near-term risk of a major disruption in the Taiwan Strait, one of the busiest waterways in the world.
Is the Chinese army ready?
China has been rapidly increasing and modernizing its air, space and sea forces in a bid to project its power globally and close the gap with the US military.
Beijing’s military capabilities are still inferior to Washington’s. But the goal is to have, by 2027, the necessary means to overcome any resistance to an invasion of Taiwan, according to the Pentagon.
According to Collin Koh, a naval affairs expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, the drills revealed how far the Chinese military has come since the last Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995-96.
“The least we can say is that the forces they deployed on the ground, and the fact that they were able to pull off an exercise of this magnitude, proves that they are much more capable than they weren’t in the 1990s,” explique M. Koh.
What change in China-Taiwan relations?
Taiwan’s 23 million people have long lived under the threat of a Chinese invasion. But that threat has become much more real under Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader in a generation.
China is now boycotting fruit and fish from Taiwan, in an effort to harm the island’s economy. Analysts say the move is aimed at eroding electoral support for Taiwan’s pro-independence government.
Beijing has sanctioned companies that supported the Taiwanese government’s development aid agency, to undermine what has been called Taiwan’s “checkbook diplomacy” towards its allies.
But analysts say China will keep its military and economic actions below the threshold of war to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States.
“Prolonged tensions are unlikely”Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program of the American think tank German Marshall Fund, told AFP. “But certainly a major crisis would affect shipping, insurance rates, trade routes and supply chains” world.
A new normal for Taiwan?
Taiwan may have to get used to China holding similar military drills in the future, Koh warns.
“Exercises near the main island of Taiwan will become the norm”he predicted.
“The fact that the People’s Liberation Army carried out such maneuvers set a precedent”, adds this analyst. He even says to expect “that the bar will be set even higher in the future, in scale and intensity”.
China regularly sends warships or planes across the center line of the Taiwan Strait, the unofficial border between the two neighbors, during times of tension.
But Ms Pelosi’s visit gave Beijing “the excuse or justification for saying that in the future she can legitimately perform exercises east of the center line without having to account for it”predicts Mr. Koh.
Have Washington and Beijing cornered each other?
China has suspended cooperation with the United States in key areas, including climate change and defense. Washington deemed this initiative “irresponsible”.
Beijing also announced sanctions against Ms. Pelosi, the third person in the American state.
“It’s a time in the relationship between the United States and China where we have really sunk very low”said Ms. Glaser during a discussion organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“I hope that our two governments will find a way forward to talk about their (…) red lines, their concerns and to prevent the downward spiral from continuing in the region”she added.