China faces a 15-year timeline to develop its own cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems for manufacturing advanced microchips, according to Frank Rohmund, who leads the semiconductor division at Germany’s Zeiss Group. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Rohmund characterized the estimate as a reasonable assumption,
while acknowledging that the exact pace of Beijing’s technological progress remains difficult to quantify.
Zeiss Executive Projects 15-Year Timeline for China’s EUV Development
The assessment from the Zeiss Group executive aligns closely with findings from financial institutions tracking the sector. UBS analysts led by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies reported that China will likely require at least a decade to develop domestic EUV technology, placing the country’s current technical maturity at a level comparable to ASML in 2004 based on patent activity centered on light sources and laser subsystems.
Global Supply Chain and Export Controls
Advanced chipmaking equipment has become a primary focus of trade restrictions enacted by the United States and its allies. The United States bars ASML Holding NV from shipping its most advanced machines to China in an effort to restrict the country’s capability to build top-flight artificial intelligence chips used in Nvidia Corp.’s accelerators. Netherlands-based ASML remains the world’s exclusive manufacturer of EUV lithography systems, and Zeiss serves as the sole optics supplier for that equipment.
Export restrictions have progressively tightened since the Dutch government, under U.S. pressure, blocked exports of ASML’s advanced EUV systems in 2018 and 2019. Further restrictions followed in October 2022 when the United States prohibited sales of leading equipment to all Chinese logic chipmakers, and subsequent measures at the end of 2023 and early 2024 restricted shipments of certain less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion models.
Domestic Investment and DUV Progress
While blocked from acquiring foreign EUV systems, Beijing has channeled massive state capital into achieving domestic semiconductor self-sufficiency. Funding is funneled through the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, known as the Big Fund, which has raised capital across multiple rounds—including a third round totaling 344 billion yuan (approximately 70 trillion won)—targeting major foundries such as SMIC, Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT), and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC).
China’s domestic industry has set a goal to raise its self-sufficiency rate to 80% by 2030, up from roughly 30%. While EUV systems remain out of reach, Chinese manufacturers have made notable strides in the previous generation of chipmaking technology. A Shanghai-based company has produced immersion DUV tools, and UBS expects China to achieve the ability to mass-produce immersion DUV lithography machines within two to five years, though potential gaps in yield, throughput, and regulatory constraints mean these tools are unlikely to see deployment outside China.
Industry Response to Trade Restrictions
Zeiss leadership has expressed skepticism regarding the long-term efficacy of expanding trade barriers against legacy equipment. Rohmund noted that any plans to extend export controls to include legacy DUV machines would negatively impact business without delivering intended geopolitical benefits.
Rohmund stated that they do not believe in the positive impact of those export restrictions because it accelerates innovation in China. He added that while Beijing has spent decades working on DUV technology and achieving visible results, Zeiss maintains a commanding technological advantage, noting that components from the Oberkochen, Germany-based company are utilized in the production of approximately 80% of the world’s microchips.
