China’s Tightrope Walk: Balancing Russia and a Legacy of Humiliation
Over 1.5 million square kilometers of Chinese territory remain under Russian control – a historical fact quietly shaping Beijing’s current, surprisingly warm, relationship with Moscow. While the world watches China’s support for Russia amidst the Ukraine conflict, a crucial piece of the puzzle lies in the long shadow of the “Century of Humiliation” and the unresolved territorial disputes that continue to simmer beneath the surface.
The Unequal Treaties and a Lingering Grievance
The 19th century saw a weakened China forced to cede vast territories to foreign powers through a series of unequal treaties. Among these, the Treaty of Peking (1860) remains particularly sensitive, handing over land east of the Ussuri River, including the strategically vital port city of Vladivostok, to the Russian Empire. Unlike Britain’s return of Hong Kong and Portugal’s handover of Macau, Russia has never relinquished these gains. This historical imbalance, a constant reminder of China’s past vulnerability, fuels a complex dynamic in its relationship with Russia today.
Echoes of the Past: The 1969 Border Clash
The current alignment isn’t simply a matter of shared geopolitical interests. The historical record reveals a period of intense distrust and even military confrontation. In 1969, the Sino-Soviet border conflict along the Ussuri River, involving over a million troops (42 Soviet divisions deployed along the border), brought the two communist giants to the brink of war. Reports even surfaced suggesting Moscow considered a nuclear strike against Chinese nuclear facilities. This history underscores the pragmatic, and perhaps even cautious, nature of China’s present-day embrace of Russia. As historian Joseph Detrani points out, China keenly remembers the Soviet threat.
Xi Jinping’s Balancing Act: National Rejuvenation and Strategic Interests
President Xi Jinping’s rhetoric consistently emphasizes “national rejuvenation” – a commitment to restoring China’s former glory and preventing a return to the days of foreign domination. Yet, openly demanding the return of lost territories from Russia would be a significant departure from China’s current foreign policy approach. This is because China’s economic rise has been inextricably linked to its relationship with the United States, beginning with the normalization of relations in 1979. A full-throated condemnation of Russia, and a demand for territorial concessions, could jeopardize those crucial economic ties.
The Afghanistan Parallel: A History of Pragmatic Alignment
China’s current approach to Russia echoes its strategy during the Cold War. In the 1980s, Beijing actively supported the U.S.-backed Mujahideen in Afghanistan, contributing significantly to the Soviet Union’s eventual withdrawal. This pragmatic alignment, driven by a shared interest in containing Soviet expansion, demonstrates China’s willingness to prioritize its strategic interests even when ideological differences exist. The Soviet withdrawal, as Gorbachev himself acknowledged, left Afghanistan a “bleeding wound” and contributed to the collapse of the USSR.
The Risk of a Second Cold War and China’s Future Path
The deepening relationship between China and Russia, particularly in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, raises concerns about a potential second Cold War. While China benefits from access to Russian resources and a counterweight to U.S. influence, a close alliance with a revanchist Russia carries significant risks. China’s economic success has been built on its integration into the global economy and its commitment to sovereign independence – principles that are undermined by supporting a nation engaged in aggressive territorial expansion.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and its broader engagement with the Global South, are predicated on fostering mutually beneficial partnerships based on respect for national sovereignty. Aligning too closely with Russia risks alienating these partners and damaging China’s reputation as a responsible global actor. The question now is whether China will prioritize short-term gains with Russia or safeguard its long-term strategic interests by advocating for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine and subtly reminding Moscow of the unresolved territorial issues from its shared past.
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