Exit wave of zero corona cancellation, a story of death, growth and inflation
(British Economist January 7, 2023 issue)
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China has been shut down for nearly three years, or 1016 days to be exact.
Most of the foreign students left the country when the pandemic started. Tourists have also stopped visiting. Chinese scientists stopped attending foreign conferences. Company executives sent from abroad were barred from returning to their workplaces in China.
For this reason, when China reopens its borders on January 8 and the “zero-corona” policy is completely lifted, the resumption of commercial, cultural and intellectual exchanges will have enormous consequences.
Most of them will be good.
fear of exit waves
But at first, something terrible happens.
The novel coronavirus is raging in China. Tens of millions of people are newly infected every day. The hospital is in a flat state.
While the zero-corona policy saved many lives in its infancy (at the cost of considerable personal liberty), the Chinese government has been forced to stockpile drugs, expand vaccinations for the elderly, and dictate which patients will be treated and where. It failed to adequately prepare for policy easing by promoting the introduction of robust procedures.
Modeling by The Economist suggests that about 1.5 million Chinese will die in the coming months if the virus continues to spread unchecked.
In such a situation, there is not much that foreign countries can do to help.
Worried about appearing weak, Beijing has even rebuffed offers from Europe to provide an effective vaccine for free.
But countries outside of China can prepare for the economic impact of the CCP’s revolution. Such effects are not mild.