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On July 6, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a submarine-fired ballistic missile into the South Pacific, marking a rare and significant demonstration of China’s nuclear-capable weapons system. The test, which landed in international waters, drew immediate international rebuke and raised concerns regarding regional stability and transparency among Pacific nations.
Defense analysts view the July 6 launch not as an isolated military exercise, but as a calculated step in China’s nuclear modernization. According to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), one of its strategic nuclear submarines launched the missile carrying a dummy warhead toward designated waters in the Pacific at 12:01 p.m. Beijing time. The missile traveled about 7,300 kilometers from the South China Sea, with the warhead landing in open waters outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone but within the broader South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone established by the Treaty of Rarotonga.
According to Étienne Marcuz, a senior analyst on strategic armaments and associate fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), the test served at least two distinct purposes. “The first is purely technical: to test its SLBM on a minimal-energy trajectory, commonly known as a ‘full-range’ trajectory,” Marcuz said. Because China’s SLBM and ICBM tests are typically conducted over Chinese territory, they rarely allow for genuine intercontinental-range flight profiles. A Pacific overwater shot allows Beijing to collect reentry and accuracy data unobtainable from inland launches.
“The most important message is the PLA is becoming a powerful military with a very strong strategic nuclear capability,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The test demonstrated the sea-based leg of China’s nuclear triad, which refers to the ability to have land, sea, and air-based nuclear systems. Further, it showed that China’s military has what is called a second-strike capability, said Dominic Meagher, a research fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy in Australia. “That means even if China was attacked first, it still has the ability to strike back, because the ability to fire could be anywhere, in the ocean or on land.”
The test has sparked a diplomatic rift, primarily over the lack of advance notice provided to neighboring countries. While China’s Defense Ministry stated on Tuesday that “China informed the relevant countries in advance, which demonstrates the openness and transparency of the Chinese military,” other nations dispute this. Australia and New Zealand both said they were not given enough prior notice, and Japan stated it was done without transparency.
The US State Department criticized Beijing on Wednesday for providing only a few hours’ warning, stating that the notification “fell short” of standards followed by other major nuclear powers. A State Department spokesperson told the South China Morning Post that the test occurred amid Beijing’s “rapid and opaque nuclear weapons build-up and is of great concern to the region.” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese decried the missile launch as “a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region,” when he spoke to reporters in Honiara on Tuesday.
For more on this story, see China Launches Submarine Missile Into Pacific Amid Joint Drills With Russia.
The missile’s impact zone—within the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone—has ignited specific historical sensitivities. The zone was established by the 1986 Rarotonga accord, which prohibits nuclear weapons throughout the region. China ratified the protocols in 1987 that prohibit testing nuclear weapons within the zone or threatening to use them against signatories. Pacific Island nations, many of which still contend with the environmental and health legacies of mid-20th-century nuclear testing by the U.S., UK, and France, have been particularly vocal.
“Those tests resulted in outrage and resulted in treaties to prevent future tests, and that includes the nuclear test ban treaty and the Treaty of Rarotonga,” Meagher noted. “These kinds of missile tests haven’t been conducted since.” Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, speaking to reporters in the Solomon capital Honiara Tuesday, said, “China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does. This is not … good in our region.”
The missile testing comes as China is racing to build more nuclear-powered submarines. In the past five years, China has been building these types of submarines faster than the U.S., according to a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Defense analysts say the launch reflects a broader transition in China’s nuclear posture—from possessing a sea-based deterrent to sustaining a credible Continuous At-Sea Deterrence (CASD) capability. K. Tristan Tang, Nonresident Fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, stated, I would see this as a systematic move, not an isolated event.
The incident has also influenced regional diplomacy. Bilateral deals between China and the leaders of small Pacific nations have prompted Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to embark on a charm offensive, including defense and security pacts inked with Vanuatu, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea in the past year. Australia and the Solomon Islands are currently in the process of negotiating a comprehensive treaty. As Beijing suggests this is part of its annual exercises, the international community continues to scrutinize the maturing state of Beijing’s sea-based nuclear deterrent.
