China can achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 through an aggressive reliance on emerging technologies, though rapid development and deployment of low-carbon solutions remain a major challenge, according to a report released on Monday by Tsinghua University’s Institute for Carbon Neutrality, China Daily reported.
Titled “Technology Perspectives on China’s Carbon Neutrality Pathway,” the study examines more than 300 key technologies across six major categories. These include zero-carbon electricity supply, zero-carbon heat and sustainable fuel supply, end-use electrification, low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution, energy efficiency improvement, and carbon capture, storage, and negative emissions.
China May Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions Through Technology Systems
The Tsinghua University report estimates that China’s carbon neutrality technology system could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 12.5 billion metric tons by 2060. Zero-carbon power supply and end-use electrification will lead the transition, expected to account for 71 percent of total emissions reductions.
Hard-to-abate sectors, such as complex industrial processes and long-distance transportation, will rely on zero-carbon heat, sustainable fuels, raw material substitution, and carbon capture. These sectors will jointly contribute about 23 percent of the reductions, China Daily reported.
However, the technology system remains far from mature. Of the 134 technology subcategories assessed, about 25 percent have reached the mature application stage, 28 percent are in early application, and nearly half remain at the experimental or demonstration stage.
Progress varies considerably across sectors. More than 93 percent of energy-efficiency technologies have reached either mature or early application, while the corresponding proportion for low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution technologies sits below 20 percent.
Meeting Carbon Peak and Neutrality Targets Requires Rapid Development
China has only 30 years between its carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. Reducing annual emissions from about 12 billion tons to less than 1 billion tons within that period will place enormous demands on research, development, and commercialization, said Zhang Qiang, Communist Party of China secretary of the Department of Earth System Science at Tsinghua University and convener of the report.
China aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Zhang, also an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, noted that technologies typically take about a decade to move from the laboratory to the market, followed by another decade to achieve a dominant market share.
China must therefore accelerate research and demonstration of emerging technologies while ensuring that innovation, deployment, and emissions-reduction needs are aligned at different stages of the transition, Zhang added.
Rising Abatement Costs Shape Future Investment Opportunities
The report projects that the average marginal abatement cost per ton of carbon dioxide will rise to about 327 yuan ($49) by 2060, up from 287 yuan in 2035. Technologies whose deployment costs are lower than conventional alternatives are expected to account for about 6.8 billion tons of emissions reductions, or 54.6 percent of the total.
Meanwhile, hydrogen-based steelmaking, the substitution of green hydrogen for conventional fuels and feedstocks in the chemical industry, low-carbon aviation fuels, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage will continue to face relatively high costs.
| Metric | 2035 Projection | 2060 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Average Marginal Abatement Cost (per ton of CO2) | 287 yuan | 327 yuan ($49) |
| Emissions Reductions from Cheaper Alternatives | — | 6.8 billion tons (54.6%) |
| Cumulative Technology Investment | — | 180 trillion yuan |
The development and deployment of carbon-neutral technologies are expected to drive major industrial transformation and create substantial investment opportunities. Cumulative investment in such technologies is projected to reach 180 trillion yuan by 2060, according to the report.
Despite these projections, major obstacles persist. These include high costs during early commercialization stages, uncertain and lengthy investment payback periods, weak market incentives, inadequate infrastructure, and insufficient system integration.
Shifting Drivers of Decarbonization
Zou Ji, CEO and president of Energy Foundation China, noted that China’s emissions trajectory has entered a new phase. Technological innovation is increasingly replacing declining demand as the primary driver of decarbonization.
On the demand side, as the economy’s growth drivers shift, demand from traditional industries has weakened, and emissions from these sectors are growing more slowly or have begun to decline in absolute terms. Electricity demand, however, continues to rise, driven by AI computing centers, household consumption, and the electrification of services.
At the same time, the rapid development of nonfossil energy technologies, including wind and solar power, energy storage, and grid optimization, has made it increasingly possible to expand electricity supply without increasing emissions over the past decade or so, Zou said.
Over the next five to 10 years, or even 20 to 30 years, emissions reductions may need to shift away from relying primarily on declining demand and toward driving emissions downward through technological progress, innovation, and deployment until the goal of carbon neutrality is achieved.
