China’s Imports and Exports Decline Widens in June, and Trade Balance Weaker Than Expected – WSJ

2023-07-13 04:54:52

In June, China’s exports in US dollars fell by 12.4% year-on-year, and imports fell by 6.8%, achieving a trade surplus of US$70.62 billion, which was weaker than market expectations across the board.

July 13, 2023

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Thursday morning, in terms of US dollars, China’s exports in June this year fell by 12.4% year-on-year, and imports fell by 6.8%, achieving a trade surplus of US$70.62 billion, which was weaker than market expectations across the board.

This means that China’s exports and imports have declined for two consecutive months, and the decline has expanded.

Prior to May, exports fell by 7.5% year-on-year, and imports fell by 4.5%, achieving a trade surplus of US$65.81 billion.

In March this year, China’s exports unexpectedly surged by 14.8%, ending the continuous negative growth since October last year. At the same time, the decline in imports narrowed sharply to 1.4%, achieving a trade surplus of 88.19 billion US dollars.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Thursday morning, in terms of US dollars, China’s exports in June this year fell by 12.4% year-on-year, and imports fell by 6.8%, achieving a trade surplus of US$70.62 billion, which was weaker than market expectations across the board.

This means that China’s exports and imports have declined for two consecutive months, and the decline has expanded.

Prior to May, exports fell by 7.5% year-on-year, and imports fell by 4.5%, achieving a trade surplus of US$65.81 billion.

In March this year, China’s exports unexpectedly surged by 14.8%, ending the continuous negative growth since October last year. At the same time, the decline in imports narrowed sharply to 1.4%, achieving a trade surplus of 88.19 billion US dollars.

In July last year, China’s trade data was still quite good: exports increased by 18% year-on-year, imports increased by 2.3%, and the trade surplus reached US$101.26 billion. However, the growth rate began to slow down significantly in August last year. In October, exports fell by 0.3%, and imports also fell by 0.7%. After that, the declines further expanded in November and December.

Compared with market expectations, both exports and imports in June were weaker than market expectations, and the trade surplus was also lower than expected.

According to a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal, China’s exports in June are expected to fall by 9.2% year-on-year, while imports are expected to fall by 4.0%, resulting in an estimated trade surplus of US$74 billion.

In terms of cumulative data, denominated in US dollars, exports in the first half of the year fell by 3.2% year-on-year, and imports fell by 6.7%, achieving a trade surplus of US$408.69 billion.

Previously, exports from January to May increased by 0.3% year-on-year, imports fell by 6.7%, and the trade surplus was 359.48 billion US dollars.

In dollar terms, in 2022, China’s exports will increase by 7.0% year-on-year, and imports will increase by 1.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$877.6 billion.

China Customs also simultaneously released data denominated in RMB.

In RMB terms, China’s exports in June fell by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports fell by 2.6%, achieving a trade surplus of 491.25 billion yuan.

Previously, exports in May fell by 0.8% year-on-year, imports increased by 2.3%, and the trade surplus was 452.33 billion yuan. Exports in April and March increased by 16.8% and 23.4% year-on-year respectively.

Cumulatively, in the first half of the year, exports increased by 3.7% year-on-year, imports decreased by 0.1%, and the trade surplus was 2.82 trillion yuan.

Previously, from January to May, China’s exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, imports increased by 0.5%, and the trade surplus was 2.47 trillion yuan.

In RMB terms, in 2022, exports will increase by 10.5% year-on-year, imports will increase by 4.3%, and the trade surplus will be 5,862.98 billion yuan.

(This article is from Dow Jones Chinese Financial News)

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