As a result, the SET Index closed at 1,620.84 points, -4.12 points, -0.25%, trading value 36,768 million baht, foreigners -197.61 million baht, TFEX -12,442 contracts, fixed income +1,656.33 million baht.
positive factor
+ The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 152.97 points, or +0.45% in the past week. The Dow rose 1.78% amid sluggish trading after the Thanksgiving holiday. And the market is only trading for half a day. While investors keep an eye on sales data on Black Friday and the situation of COVID-19 in China.
+ BMTA rushes to improve the rehabilitation plan Aiming to propose the Ministry of Transport to consider procuring new EV buses to run for service People’s Republic of China – replacement of old cars
+ Mr. Anusorn Tamajai Former Director and Audit Committee The Bank of Thailand said that the Thai economy in 4Q22 is likely to expand at an accelerated pace. It is expected to expand by almost 4% YoY, which will give the Thai economy in 2022 a chance to grow at 3.3-3.4%, higher than the NESDB’s estimate. last assessed at 3.2%
negative factor
WTI crude futures dropped $1.66, or 2.13%, to settle at $76.28 a barrel, down 4.78% in the past week. Due to concerns about the trend of falling oil demand. continues to slow down the market
– Chinese protesters across the country express their frustration at the government’s continued zero-spread COVID-19 policy and lockdowns in cities, which are affecting the economy and people’s livelihoods. While some protesters demanded that President Xi Jinping resign.
– Russia is drafting a presidential decree that will prohibit any Russian company and traders from selling oil to any company and country participating in the Russian oil price ceiling.
– Huawei Technology and ZTE Corp. have been banned from selling electronics in the US. due to concerns about security risks
today’s market trends
The index is expected to weaken today. after the number of COVID-19 infections in China accelerated As a result, the Chinese protested all over the country. In addition, the price of WTI crude oil declined, which pressured energy stocks. Index frame today at 1,610-1,625 points.
investment strategy
• Win EV subsidy measures to enter the cabinet this November: EA NEX BYD GPSC
• MSCI Rebalancing effective Nov 30: MSCI Global Standard Stocks in : – , Stocks out : BAM
MSCI Global Small Cap Stocks in: BAM, ERW, JWD, NEX, RAM Stocks out: PSG, SYNEX
• FTSE : Mid Cap shares to TLI
• Shop Dee Mee 2023 : BJC CPALL MAKRO CRC COM7 SPVI CPW JMART HMPRO ZEN M AU
• Accelerating number of COVID-19 cases in the country : BCH CHG EKH THG WPH
stock special report
CK – Bloomberg Consensus 27.50 baht
“We expect the backlog to hit a new high by the end of this year, but 4Q22 earnings may weaken due to seasonal factors.”
3Q22 profit of 571 million baht +108%YoY +91%QoQ (growing 25% better than market expectation) with construction revenue of 3.6 billion baht +46%YoY +5%QoQ from the gradual recognition of existing projects And began to recognize new works such as the construction of the Den Chai-Chiang Rai-Chiang Khong railway line, contracts 2 and 3, together with the recognition of profit sharing increased to 736 million baht +71%YoY +57%QoQ from the operating results of subsidiaries Good growth (CKP + BEM). During 9M22, profit was 992 million baht +24%YoY.
•At the end of this year, there is a chance that the backlog will make a new high, reaching 240,000 million baht from the current level of around 60,000 million baht, supported by 2 main projects: 1. Western Orange Line; The value of system work and construction is approximately 1.1-1.2 billion baht. Currently awaiting approval from the cabinet and 2. The Luang Prabang Dam project, worth 80 billion baht, is currently in the process of agreeing on the final price. Both of these projects It is expected to be finalized and signed within this year. In addition, in 2023, there are also opportunities to accept 2 more big projects, namely 1. 2nd floor expressway (Double Deck) worth 3.5 billion baht and 2. Southern Purple Line electric train system work. Worth 2.7 billion baht.
•opinion We have a positive view on the backlog, which is expected to make a new high, which will support construction revenue growth for the next 6-7 years. due to no dividends from TTW (usually dividends in Q2, Q3) and a trend in profit sharing from CKP that decreases due to seasonal factors. Bloomberg Consensus expects profit in 2022 around 972 million baht (9M22 profit is 102% of the full year forecast. )
news stock
(+) SEAFCO (Bloomberg Consensus 4.15 baht) Showing a backlog of up to 1.9 billion baht, supporting revenue and profit for the year 2023 Bidding a project of 4.7 billion baht, winning 1.5 billion baht. Bangladesh Metro Works (Source Thanhoon)
(+) AH (Bloomberg Consensus 40.00 baht) 2023 performance target is better than this year, expected to grow 10-15%, gross profit margin 10-12% and net profit margin higher than this year. from new orders Especially from EV cars, orders are expected to be no less than 500-600 million baht, reaffirming the target of 30% growth this year as planned (Ma Than Hoon).
(+) ICN (Bloomberg consensus – baht) Preparing to sign new contracts at the end of the year worth 300 million baht, pushing the backlog at the end of the year to exceed 2 billion baht from the current one billion baht. Keep an eye out for next year’s projects. It is expected to support revenue growth of 20-30%, gearing up to focus on the telecommunication system contractor business (Mathun Hoon).
(+) SPA (Bloomberg consensus 11.70 baht) Keep an eye on the high season, pushing the service usage furiously, reaching 70%, hoping for a turnaround turnover soon, adjusting the service fee according to the cost. The management aims to launch a new business, treating insomnia with hemp-marijuana in mid-December, receiving assets in 2023 for a full year of 50 million baht (at Than Hoon).