Shares of Cipher Digital, CleanSpark, and IREN plummeted nearly 20% in the week ending November 10, 2026, following the election of a Texas governor who campaigned on halting new data center approvals.
The political shift occurred on November 3, when Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott. Hinojosa centered her campaign on a moratorium for new data center projects until state lawmakers can implement stricter protections.
“It’s not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they profit off Texas, and that stopped when I became governor,” Hinojosa told CNN on November 5. She is scheduled to take office in January, creating a window of intense uncertainty for firms mid-expansion.
$CLSK $CIFR $IREN $MARA $RIOT CleanSpark Sinks 11%, Cipher Down 18% as Texas Elects Critic of “Data Center Madness” – CleanSpark fell 11% after Gina Hinojosa, who called for a moratorium on new data centers, won the Texas governor's race, and Keefe Bruyette downgraded it and…
Here is why that matters: while existing sites are largely shielded by long-term leases, the pipeline for future growth is now under threat. For Cipher Digital, which closed at $6.53 on November 10—a 20% drop from its November 3 close—the stakes are tied to its massive 5.9-gigawatt expansion pipeline.
But there is a catch. As of September 30, Cipher Digital carried $5.62 billion in debt against just $656 million in cash. In October, the company added $850 million in zero-coupon convertible notes to its balance sheet. Analysts at Bernstein noted on November 4 that while Cipher’s currently signed projects appear fully funded, the company faces pressure regarding future developments due to uncertainty in Texas and higher capital costs.
| Company | Weekly Performance (to Nov 10) | Primary Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Cipher Digital | -20% | $5.62B debt load; Texas regulatory pipeline |
| CleanSpark | -19% | Unsigned Texas growth; Georgia exclusivity |
| IREN | -19% | $6B in remaining capital expenditure |
The market reaction has been swift, with financial institutions recalibrating their outlooks. Keefe Bruyette downgraded both Cipher Digital and CleanSpark to “Market Perform” on November 4. Meanwhile, Bernstein lowered its price target for Cipher from $23 to $15, citing the dual headwinds of Texas policy uncertainty and the rising cost of capital.
Market analysts are currently distinguishing between “signed” sites—which are viewed as more secure—and the speculative pipeline. Black Pearl, for instance, has been paying rent since August. The 20-year lease for Barber Lake, valued at approximately $9.1 billion, is expected to commence payments between the fourth quarter of this year and early 2027. These projects are seen as the most resilient components of Cipher’s portfolio.
Conversely, CleanSpark faces a different set of challenges. Its growth strategy in Texas is currently unsigned, and its operations in Georgia are restricted by an exclusivity agreement held by a third-party tenant for up to 885 megawatts. For IREN, the situation is equally complex.
While the company stated on November 5 that its program for a $4 billion annual revenue target is fully contracted, it has delayed that goal from the end of this year to January, noting that $6 billion in capital expenditure remains to be funded.
Despite the volatility, some institutional investors maintain a long-term view. While Jefferies lowered its target for Cipher from $12 to $10 on November 10, it maintained a “Buy” rating. Similarly, Morgan Stanley kept an “Overweight” rating on November 9, though it slashed its target from $51.50 to $27.50. Currently, Cipher is trading at roughly 4.9 times its forward sales, significantly lower than its three-year average of 11.4x.
The immediate future for these firms will likely hinge on how the incoming administration defines the scope of the moratorium. The Stingray project shell is expected to arrive in the fourth quarter, and Cipher Digital is scheduled to report its next earnings early next year.
