New Zealand’s Looming Flood Crisis: Why Retreating From Climate Research is a Risky Gamble
Auckland’s devastating floods in early 2023, followed by the widespread destruction across Tai Rāwhiti and Nelson, weren’t isolated incidents. They were a stark warning – and scientists say we’re losing the ability to accurately predict, and prepare for, what’s coming next. As critical climate research funding dries up, New Zealand faces a growing blind spot in understanding the escalating risks of extreme weather events, leaving homeowners, insurers, and local councils increasingly vulnerable.
The Research Retreat: A Step Backwards at a Critical Time
Last year, Earth Sciences NZ (formerly NIWA) disbanded a highly respected team specializing in applying global climate models to the New Zealand context. Simultaneously, the $10 million Disclude Program, dedicated to studying changing extreme events, was denied further funding after five years. Professor Dave Frame, a leading climate scientist at Canterbury University and a key figure in the Disclude Program, paints a concerning picture: “We’re getting hammered by extreme events, they are the sharp end of climate change, and we are actually retreating from our ability to answer these kinds of questions.”
While scientists are confident that atmospheric rivers – the culprits behind the Auckland and East Coast deluges – are becoming 10-20% wetter due to warmer air holding more moisture, understanding other storm types is far more complex. Events impacting the South Island or Wellington, influenced by westerly winds and other factors, remain less predictable. And crucially, the ability to model these changes is diminishing.
Did you know? New Zealand’s unique geography and exposure to both tropical and polar weather systems make it particularly vulnerable to climate change-driven extreme weather. This complexity necessitates specialized research, which is now under threat.
The Urgent Need for Better Information – and Who Pays?
An expert panel recently called for consistent, high-quality information on flood risk to empower individuals to make informed decisions about property. This isn’t just about knowing if a property is at risk, but understanding the frequency and severity of potential flooding, factoring in local terrain and protective measures like stopbanks. Matt Whineray, chair of the panel, emphasizes that this data is “the single most important step” in preparing for a future where blanket property buyouts after floods are likely to end.
However, the panel’s suggestion that financial compensation for flood-damaged properties may become less common has sparked debate. While Whineray clarified that this doesn’t mean abandoning those affected, it signals a potential shift towards shared responsibility and proactive risk mitigation.
Existing Tools and Their Limitations
The Natural Hazards Portal offers a starting point, allowing users to check past insurance claims for earthquake and flood damage on a property. A pilot program in the Bay of Plenty is integrating council hazard maps into the platform. But Sarah-Jayne McCurrach, head of risk reduction at the Natural Hazards Commission, acknowledges significant inconsistencies: “Councils vary hugely in their resources and many need help modelling flood risk.” A national flood model is under development, but its accuracy varies considerably across the country.
“For many places it will be difficult to model climate impacts down to the post code level,” admits Professor Frame, highlighting the challenges of granular prediction. This uncertainty leaves homeowners and potential buyers in a precarious position.
Expert Insight: “We can’t tell somebody today that their house will be safe for the next 100 years, regardless of where it is,” says Victoria University’s Jonathan Boston, chair of a previous government report. “It’s unrealistic to expect people to manage their own risks when those risks are uncertain and growing.”
The Property Market and the Illusion of Short Memories
Better data, when it arrives, is expected to impact property prices. However, historical data suggests that buyers often have “short memories” and hazard maps don’t always strongly influence values. This creates a dangerous dynamic, as irrational market behavior and “herd mentality” could lead to an abrupt correction, leaving those holding title at the wrong time facing severe consequences.
This potential for market instability underscores the need for transparency and proactive risk assessment. Ignoring the growing threat of extreme weather isn’t just environmentally irresponsible; it’s financially reckless.
The Role of Insurance and Managed Retreat
As flood risk increases, the insurance industry will inevitably reassess its coverage and premiums. Properties in high-risk areas may become uninsurable, forcing difficult conversations about managed retreat – the strategic relocation of communities away from vulnerable coastlines and floodplains. This process, while challenging, may become increasingly necessary to protect lives and livelihoods.
Pro Tip: Before purchasing a property, thoroughly investigate its flood risk using all available resources, including the Natural Hazards Portal, local council maps, and independent flood risk assessments. Don’t rely solely on past experience or anecdotal evidence.
Looking Ahead: A Call for Reinvestment in Climate Research
The current situation demands a reversal of the trend towards defunding climate research. Investing in advanced modeling, data collection, and risk assessment is not merely an expense; it’s a crucial investment in New Zealand’s future resilience. This includes supporting scientists, empowering local councils with the resources they need, and fostering collaboration between research institutions, government agencies, and the private sector.
Furthermore, a national conversation is needed about how to share the costs of adapting to a changing climate. This may involve revisiting insurance models, exploring innovative financing mechanisms, and developing clear guidelines for managed retreat.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the Natural Hazards Portal?
A: The Natural Hazards Portal is an online platform that allows you to search for past claims for earthquake and flood damage on a property. It’s a useful starting point for assessing risk, but it’s not a comprehensive solution.
Q: Will flood risk information affect my property value?
A: Potentially, yes. While past studies show buyers sometimes overlook hazard information, increased awareness and insurance challenges could lead to price corrections in high-risk areas.
Q: What is managed retreat?
A: Managed retreat is the strategic relocation of communities away from areas at high risk from climate change impacts, such as flooding and sea-level rise. It’s a complex process that requires careful planning and community engagement.
Q: Where can I find more information about flood risk in my area?
A: Start with the Natural Hazards Portal (www.naturalhazards.govt.nz) and your local council’s website. You can also explore resources from the Ministry for the Environment and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA).
The choices we make today will determine how well New Zealand is prepared for the inevitable increase in extreme weather events. Ignoring the science and underinvesting in research is a gamble we simply cannot afford to take. The time to act is now.
What are your predictions for the future of flood risk in New Zealand? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
