Admittedly, in general, a good cocoa harvest is expected in West Africa. However, we must remain on our guard because the increase in the cost of inputs could have some negative effects on production, underlines the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) in its latest monthly report published yesterday.
Fertilizers are at their highest price in three years, with the DAP rising from $747 a ton in February 2022 to $938 in March. As for urea and potash (MOP), they rose by 22% and 44% respectively. However, in Africa, the orchard is old, yields are low and vulnerability to disease is high, which leads to the use of inputs.
According to the latest ICCO estimates, world production for the 2021/22 campaign would fall by 6.8% to 4.89 million tonnes (Mt) due to the dizzying drop of 9.9% to 3.655 Mt in Africa (in Ghana, the harvest is likely to fall to its lowest volume in 12 years, at 689,000 t). 266,000 t respectively.
Faced with this, world grindings are estimated to increase by 1.5% or even 73,000 t to reach 5.071 Mt; according to the latest revised figures for 2020/21, the harvest then was 4.998 Mt. Grinding activities would increase by 2.2% to 1.847 Mt in Europe and by 3.9% to 1.091 Mt in Africa. In the Americas, they should slip by 0.8% to 966,000 t and in Asia, they should remain at the same level, at 1.167 Mt.
Finally, with regard to certified stocks in Europe, beans from Nigeria predominate with 48% of the total or 73,050 t, followed by Cameroon with 33% or 50,330 t, Côte d’Ivoire with 14% or 20,590 t and Guinea with 3% or 5,290 t. In stocks certified in the United States, beans from Ecuador predominate, representing 43% of the total or 23,644 t, followed by Côte d’Ivoire with 37% or 20,589 t, Nigeria with 8% or 4,547 t and Peru with 5% and 2,89 t.
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