2023-04-24 11:06:01
As is usual every month, analysts consulted by the Banco de la República predicted how the main indicators of the Colombian economy will move.
As usual every month, the analysts consulted by the Bank of the Republic in its Monthly Survey of Expectations predicted how the main indicators of the Colombian economy will move. On this occasion, they considered, the dollar will end April at $4,517, which would be a reduction of $129 compared to the end of March.
The optimism was such that among the 34 market agents that the bank surveyed, there were those who dared to predict a month end with the dollar at $4,200; meanwhile, the most “pessimistic” considered that it would finish at $4,693.
(See also: “It is so that people do not spend so much”: Banco de la República explained the measure it took)
As experts have explained in recent weeks, the strengthening of the peso has to do with international factors such as the increase in oil prices and the weakening of the dollar throughout the world, and national ones, such as the significant entry of foreign currency into the country from the beginning of the year.
But how long will the joy last? From what Corficolombiana economic analysts say, it seems that little. In a document published this week, they pointed out that the space is limited because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the world and the aforementioned cycle of currency entry into the country is ending.
“We expect that in the next two months the exchange rate will fluctuate in the range between $4,550 and $4.9P00,” said Julio César Romero, chief economist, and Diego Gómez, analyst of the External Context and Exchange Market of Corficolombiana’s economic research team.
However, they continued, “if the economic conditions allow a relaxation in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED) and the local economic reforms are moderated by their passage in the Legislature, We anticipate an appreciation of the peso by the end of 2023, which would place the exchange rate between $4,150 and $4,400”.
(See also: “It would be expropriation”: Duque objected to Petro’s pension reform and issued a warning)
Effect reforms?
Everything suggests that the government’s reforms are going to be a turning point for the country’s macroeconomic variables, although international factors weigh more heavily in the balance.
Daniel Wills, Technical Vice President and Economic Studies of Asofondos, assured this week at the Great Forum Economic Perspectives 2023 of EL COLOMBIANO that the markets are waiting for the reforms to be, yes or yes, totally different after passing through Congress.
As the debates begin, eyes will also be on the Fed’s decisions on interest rates and its comments on the economy. In recent years, for example, he indicated that the US economy has been stagnating, while prices have increased moderately.
For now, analysts surveyed by Banrep believe that the dollar will end this year at $4,629. The most optimistic see a margin for it to be located at $4,100, and the least optimistic bet at $4,900.
Today, the Market Representative Rate (TRM) that governs is $4,535.78, with a slight increase of $3.35 compared to yesterday, which was $4,532.43..
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