Thai stock market index yesterday (29 Sep 65) “Commercial Banking Group” Raised the panel in the morning after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the policy rate by 0.25%, causing the bank to prepare to raise interest rates after Bangkok Bank (BBL) pilot raises deposit-loan interest, led by SCB X Public Company Limited or SCB, up to 106.50 baht, an increase of 2.90% before closing the market at 104.50 baht, an increase of 0.97%, BBL touches 139.50 baht, up 2.57% before closing the market at 138 baht, an increase of 1.47%, and Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited or BAY touched 32 baht, an increase of 2.40% before returning to close the market at 31.50 baht, an increase of 0.90%.
Mr. Korat Sawekrutmat Assistant Vice President of Securities Analysis Analyst Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited said the research department expects the probability that other commercial banks will raise interest rates up to 80-90% after Bangkok Bank (BBL) raises both deposit-loan interest immediately And it’s an increase more than the estimated as well. The interest rate hike is considered a rate hike in several years. The bank raised interest rates last year in 2013.
Part of this is expected from the case of the MPC’s press conference after raising the policy rate by 0.25% that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is confident that the Thai economy in the 4th quarter of 2022 will recover well after the number of tourists. Enter the country more than expected 1 million per month. In which during the last August-July, the number of tourists visiting Thailand is more than 1.4-1.5 million per month, so there is a chance that by the end of 2022, there will be a new estimate of gross domestic product or GDP.
“If the number of tourists continues to increase It will have a positive effect on the Thai economy to recover continuously. But have to wait and see and win the 4th quarter of 65, which is the high season of the tourism business as well, so it is expected that at the end of this year there is a chance to make a new GDP estimate. And it will have a positive effect on earnings and bank stocks.”
Mr. Thanaphat Chatsathien Director of Securities Analysis Trinity Securities said yesterday that the shares of the commercial bank group rose all day especially large bank groups This was partly due to the MPC’s interest rate hike and the rebound of the stock market environment. And if you look at the macro picture, the economic recovery will also be a boost for the banks.
In the past, debtors still recovered by industry and not all recovered. Especially debtors in the tourism-related sectors, banks must maintain a policy of assistance. But if the number of tourists returns This will allow the debtor in such groups to be able to return to repay the debt as usual. This will have a positive effect on the bank group will have more income – profit.
While the case according to the Constitutional Court Appointment to read the ruling on the case of General Prayut Chan-ocha’s 8-year term as Prime Minister today (30 Sept. 65) is expected to be the atmosphere in the country. It is unlikely to affect the stock market investment. I think that the impact of the stock market atmosphere will be more from outside factors.
However, the recommended bank stocks that are worth investing in and that benefit from the interest rate hike the most are large banks such as BBL, SCB and KBANK.