The crisis seems to be behind us. But the situation is more complex
The health situation seems to have improved markedly since the beginning of the year, with less than 16,000 patients currently hospitalized, compared to nearly 25,000 at the end of December. The number of contaminations also fell in one month, from more than 20,000 to less than 5,000 per day on average, according to the Covid Tracker site. Overview of the Covid epidemic.
A historically low incidence rate
With an average incidence rate in France of 45 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, according to Public Health France, the circulation of the virus falls below the alert threshold (50). A threshold that France had not known since September 2021, just before the historic outbreak at 3,800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants at the omicron peak in January 2022.Do not compare current rates with those of previous waves. Admittedly, there is a real drop in the number of cases but also fewer and fewer people who get tested or who do self-tests.“, analyzes Stanislas Rebaudet, infectiologist at the European Hospital. Self-tests whose results are not integrated into public health data and whose reliability remains relative. “The sensitivity of a PCR test (in the medical biology laboratory) is around 95%. That of an antigenic test, depending on the model and the phase of the disease between 40 and 90%. The self-test being done with a nasal and not nasopharyngeal swab, this further lowers the sensitivity. And still it is necessary that the sampling is done well… There are therefore still a lot of holes in the racket…“
Is a new wave possible?
“We are still in a risky season“, estimates Dr Rebaudet. Understand: an icy climate which weakens our mucous membranes making them more sensitive to viruses. And which rather invites to indoor gatherings without always having the reflex to air (10 minutes every hour). he emergence of the BF7 variant which has infected more than 250 million Chinese has aroused great concern, no alarmism on the side of Professor Xavier de Lamballerie, director of the emerging viruses unit (UVE, AMU / IRD) in Marseille. “You should know that the BF7 variant circulating in China probably left Europe since it was isolated in Belgium but did not thrive there.he explains. As it stands, even if we watch it carefully, it does not cause us any short-term concern: the European population is very well immunized, either by vaccination or because it has been infected. In the long run, you always have to stay modest.”
The United States and the United Kingdom under surveillance
Another threat, XBB.1.5, a sub-variant of Omicron, which recombines several versions of the virus, has been raging since October in the United States and has caused a new outbreak of contamination. It is the most contagious coronavirus to date. “If we had been at the beginning of winter and the population was weakly immune, one could have said with certainty that it was also going to cause a new wave in Europe. In the short term, this is not a concern. If he doesn’t win in the next two months…“. Also under watch is CH1.1, another Omicron sub-variant that is thriving in the UK. “There too the incidence rate is dropping so it is difficult to see its value. For the moment, he cannot impose himself to relaunch a new wave“, continues Professor Lamballerie.
WHO maintains alert level
Is the Covid-19 pandemic still serious enough to merit WHO’s maximum alert level? This is the question that the organization’s Covid-19 emergency committee asked itself this Friday in order to decide it. For the head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the answer is not in doubt. “Although I don’t want to preempt the opinion of the emergency committee (which should be delivered within the week, Editor’s note), I remain very concerned about the situation in many countries and the growing number of deaths, he indicated. My message is clear: do not underestimate this virus, it has surprised us and will continue to surprise us and it will continue to kill“Since the beginning of December, “the number of weekly deaths reported worldwide is on the rise“. This Monday, the WHO therefore decided to maintain the maximum alert level. In France, covid still kills 300 people per week.
However, last Friday, Japan announced that it would lift the recommendation to wear a mask next May and lower the medical classification of Covid-19, which will now be considered the flu when today it is at same level as tuberculosis. “We are not done with this virus but we seem to be moving away from the pure and hard crisis, believes Xavier de Lamballerie. This is when it will be necessary to have altruistic management: when the vast majority of the population no longer have to fear the virus, it would be good if they made an effort to protect the most fragile who themselves, are always at risk. It is also a question of the threshold of social acceptability: today, the flu can kill 15,000 people, and that doesn’t bother anyone…”.