At 1.05, the effective number of reproductions is again above 1.0, the proportion of virus variants BA.4/5 continues to rise and is currently 16 percent. The growth advantage of the more infectious subvariants over the preceding variants is currently estimated at around 50 percent.
The variant-specific number of reproductions is 1.44 (within calendar weeks 20 to 22). This means that 100 infected people infect 144 other people. In the same period, the effective reproduction number of BA.2 increased from around 0.86 to 0.96, the experts explain.
7-day incidence expected to be around 300
The update of the model calculators from Vienna University of Technology, MedUni Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG) expects a 7-day incidence in the range of 246 to 405 cases per 100,000 inhabitants for next Wednesday, with an average of 307 cases assumed. The lowest incidence is expected in Styria (120 to 200) and the highest in Vienna (400 to 660). The incidence is currently 220. On June 15, the experts expect an average of almost 4,000 new infections every day.
According to the experts, the renewed increase was expected for a longer time due to the declining immunity of the Austrian population – the BA.2 immunity rate is currently estimated at 61 percent – but the speed of the current trend reversal cannot be explained by this alone.
Contact behavior changed
In detail, the effective number of reproductions rose from 0.83 (May 25) to 1.05 (June 4) in the past ten days according to AGES. This means that 100 infected people infect an average of 105 people with the corona virus. According to the experts, the increase can be attributed to the influence of several factors.
The proportion of virus variants BA.4/5 continues to increase. However, there were also increases in federal states with a comparatively low BA.4/5 prevalence. Due to more events and increased travel around the public holidays in the past few weeks, contact behavior has changed, i.e. more contacts are taking place again.
The relaxation steps – the end of the mask requirement and the school tests – are also having an impact in this direction. However, the scientists emphasized that none of the explanatory factors mentioned can be identified as the cause of this dynamic.
Fewer tests and trend against seasonality
When evaluating the development, it should also be pointed out that the increase is noticeable despite the significantly reduced number of tests. This could mean that asymptomatic infections often go undetected. In addition, the current increase is going against the trend of seasonality: In the previous pandemic years – at least in Austria – the infections in late spring decreased successively and to a greater extent than this year.
There are currently trends similar to Austria in most countries in Central and Western Europe, for example Germany currently has a 7-day incidence of 238. The outlier is Portugal, which is currently struggling with a new wave and an incidence of around 1,600.
Slight increase expected on normal wards
The increase in Austria is also having an effect on the hospitals. After the previous decline, the experts are expecting an increase in Covid patients again, and a decrease in the number of seriously ill people in intensive care units is also expected. The two-week forecast for the covering of the normal wards assumes an increase from 479 patients on Tuesday to 539 (mean value) on June 22nd.
In the intensive care units, the number of beds occupied by infected people is likely to decrease from 42 to an average of 39 during this period. The coating prognosis does not distinguish between people whose hospitalization is causally attributable to Covid-19 and people who were originally hospitalized due to a different diagnosis.
Traffic restriction instead of quarantine becomes an option
Meanwhile, quarantine or isolation could soon be a thing of the past. Because a passage is inserted in the Epidemic Act that enables the Minister of Health to introduce general traffic restrictions as an alternative. The omicron variant has shown that traffic restrictions can also be a suitable means of curbing the spread of the disease when the disease is predominantly mild, according to the explanations for the amendment.
Even with future virus variants that have properties comparable to Omicron, secretions could be dispensable and mere traffic restrictions could be sufficient. In this case, the planned authorization to issue ordinances would allow rapid adaptation to the characteristics of the prevailing virus variant.
Examples of traffic restrictions
Specifically, the law states that the Minister of Health can determine by ordinance “that persons who are ill, suspected of being ill or suspected of being infected are restricted in their dealings with the outside world”. Of course, this only applies if there is no serious and significant danger to the health of other people depending on the type of illness.
What such traffic restrictions could be is also stated. In particular, the following conditions could be considered: the requirement for proof of an only low epidemiological risk, the obligation to wear a mechanical protective device covering the mouth and nose area and rules on distance. The prohibition of entering work places and using means of transport as well as the participation in meetings are also mentioned.
criticism of the opposition
The opposition criticized: SPÖ health spokesman Philip Kucher was particularly annoyed by the coalition’s approach. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Health again presented extensive changes to the Epidemic Act, which were not under review. The changes contained far-reaching regulatory powers and also provisions relevant to data protection: “This government doesn’t care, it’s just being pushed through.”
FPÖ health spokesman Gerhard Kaniak suspected bad things. He had the suspicion that the government wanted to use the amendment to implement an indirect vaccination requirement by means of traffic restrictions.