Country Risk exceeded 1,900 points and hit a 16-month high

The leading index S&P Merval of Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets (BYMA) it recovered 1.9%, to a provisional close of 85,126.37 points, in a selective market and with reduced business due to investor disinterest.

The most relevant rises of the day were recorded by the shares of Telecom Argentina (+5.1%); BBVA Bank (+4.2%); Cresud (+3.8%); Macro Bank (+3.3%); and Pampa Energia (3.2%).

For its part, the falls of the wheel were recorded by Cablevision (-2.5%); Commercial Society of Silver (-0.8%); Mirgor (-0.4%) and Transportadora de Gas del Norte (-0.2%).

Argentina faces in the first quarter of 2022 maturities for about 4,000 million dollars to the IMF and another 2,000 million dollars to the Paris Club, at a time when the reserves of the Central Bank are very limited, which increases the pressure on the financial dollar in the Stock Market, which this Thursday exceeded $222 (it climbed up to 4%), while the blue closed at the unprecedented $214.

“The free dollars ended in great demand, with the market putting a lot of pressure on the Government for quick definitions on an agreement with the IMF. On top of that, Wall Street went from higher to lower and the Nasdaq returned a rise of almost 2%”commented an operator.

“In addition to seasonality, there are two elements that allow us to think that the dollars could go looking for new nominal records: 1) the excess of pesos and 2) the deterioration of expectations due to an agreement with the IMF that is moving away”Said Portfolio Personal Investments.

“Although the clock is ticking, we suspect that the government will secure a new deal with the IMF in the coming months and shift to more orthodox policies,” predicted, however, Capital Economics. “The biggest challenge will be to restore currency competitiveness while keeping a check on inflation and currency-laden public debt.”, he added.

Due to the interest they arouse, the other side of the market are the Cedears (foreign shares listed locally), which in addition to always doubling or tripling local shares in volume without any problem, with the new listings on the US indices (ETF) they repeat excellent amounts.

In fact this Thursday, of the $5,909 million that were traded in equities, 85% corresponded to Cedears, and of that cake, the ETFs SPY (+2.5%), DIA (+3%) and XLF (+3.9%) traded 33%.

On Wall Street, on the other hand, the shares of Mercado Libre (+2.9%) and IRSA Propiedades Comerciales (2.5%) led the rises among Argentine papers, which ended with most losses, reversing the trend observed in the first part of the day, following the trajectory of the New York stock market. The assets of the company Marcos Galperín came to gain almost 8% at the beginning of the session.

For their part, the falls were led by Despegar assets (-4%); South Gas Carrier (-2.8%); YPF (-2.7%); and Loma Negra (-2.3%).

Bonds and Country Risk

in fixed income, and after starting the day on the rise, the bonds denominated in dollars closed lower, after scoring their first and only rise in the year the day before, in a selective round of business.

Among the most outstanding setbacks, the Bonar 2041 (-2.5%) appeared; and Bonar 2030 (-2%). Dollarized titles show a rate of return (IRR) of up to 29.1% per year (Bonar 2029).

Thus, the Country Risk prepared by the JP Morgan bank rose 1.4% (27 units), to 1,907 basic points.

In the weight segment, dollar-linked sovereign bonds continued with strong demand, rising 0.8% on average this Thursday: TV23 stood out again (+0.9%).

For its part, CER-adjusted bonds showed supply throughout the curve, from the leceres to the long section of the curve, losing 0.5% on average (with the exception of TX22, which rose 0.1%), SBS reported.

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.