The WHO is considering three different scenarios for the future of Covid-19 around the world. From a new variant to the progressive reduction of the disease, an overview of the three paths that the epidemic can take in 2022.
In France and around the world, the epidemic rebound has been undeniable in recent weeks. This Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) shared its “updated strategic plan” for preparedness and response to Covid-19. This is the third since the start of the epidemic, more than two years ago. This plan, the director general of the WHOdoctor Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, hopes that he will be the last, he indicated on March 30 during a speech.
During this intervention, the WHO thus detailed three scenarios as to the future of the pandemic in 2022, from the most probable to worse.
Scenario 1: most likely
According to current data, “the most likely scenario is that the virus continues to evolve“. Unsurprisingly, the WHO does not foresee a total disappearance of Covid-19 and its variants but tends to think that the defense strategy against them should be similar with the current management of the virus against influenza.
“The severity of illness the virus causes will decrease over time as immunity increases in all populations, through vaccination and infections,” it read. Depending on “periodic peaks in cases and deaths as immunity wanes”, it will certainly be necessary to strengthen control measures on an ad hoc basis, especially for vulnerable populations. Like the flu epidemic every year, covid vaccination campaigns could occur seasonally.
Scenario 2: the best
Second scenario, that so much hoped for by the WHO, the appearance of new less serious variants. A bit like Omicron but in an even more benign version, these new variants would be a blessing for the evolution of the epidemic. Ideally, they would be less serious. Current vaccines would no longer be needed, as would the development of new formulas.
Scenario 3: the worst
Finally, the last scenario envisaged by the WHO would be the worst. While new less dangerous variants may emerge, the reverse is also true with the appearance of more worrying variants. If Omicron and BA.2 are on the border of the good and the bad variant because less dangerous than the original source, they are on the other hand much more contagious.
The emergence of a variant, more dangerous and at the same time more virulent, would reset the epidemic counters and could trigger a global recession again. If the “interest” of the virus is to reproduce as much as possible, it must however avoid killing the host at the risk of disappearing and not finding the right balance for its survival, hence the low chances that the world is heading to this scenario.
If this were the case, “it will be necessary to modify the current vaccines considerably and to ensure that they reach the most vulnerable people in priority”, hopes the WHO.
The WHO’s five tips to avoid the worst
In order to put an end to the acute phase which is currently affecting Europe and Asia, the Director General of the WHO mentions five essential components in which countries must invest this year.
The first: “surveillance, laboratories and public health intelligence. Next comes “vaccination, public health, social measures, and engaged communities”, then “the continuation of clinical care against Covid-19 and the search for resilient health systems”, finally “equitable access to tools” and “coordination” of States to switch from emergency management to long-term management of respiratory diseases.
“Striving to vaccinate 70% of the population of each country remains essential to control the pandemic, with priority given to health workers, the elderly and other groups at risk”, concluded the UN organization. Maria Van Kerkhove, Madame Covid for the WHO, stressed that even in its current form “the virus still has a lot of energy”.