The figures remain reassuring. On Franceinfo this week, Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the scientific council, even estimated that the fifth wave could end as early as the end of May, with an average of 10,000 cases per day. But “the pandemic is not over”. According to Public Health France, the high cases of reinfection are worrying and above all, they do not bode well in the event of the arrival of a new wave.
The virus is still circulating and can affect those who have already been infected. In its epidemiological update of May 12, Public Health France (SPF) indicates that 961,550 possible cases of reinfection were identified between March 2, 2021 and April 24, 2022.
In more detail: On average, the time between the two episodes of infection is 233 days, or just over 7 months. And in 55.5% of cases, positive people had symptoms.
But these cases of reinfection could be even more numerous. “Only people who were possibly reinfected from March 2, 2021 (January 1, 2021 + 60 days) are identifiable in this analysis, and any reinfection that occurred from January 1, 2021 after a first episode in 2020 is not identifiable”warns SPF.
“93% of possible cases of reinfection for which a screening result was available had a result suggestive of infection by Omicron during the second episode”observe encore SPF.
The proportion of reinfection increased from 0.7% between March 2 and December 5, 2021 to 4.5% from December 6, 2021. To reach 6.9% in the single week of April 18 to 24, 2022.
“It is very likely that the very strong distribution in France of the omicron variant, characterized by increased transmissibility and significant immune escape, plays a significant role in this increase in the frequency of possible cases of reinfections. It also seems more likely that the decrease of post-infectious or post-vaccination immune protection over time in the French population amplifies this phenomenon”translates as SPF.
In this context, health authorities are keeping a close eye on the two new sub-variants of Omicron currently plaguing South Africa.