[Epoch Times, May 7, 2022]Hello everyone, I’m Tang Hao, how are you today? “world crossroads》
Today’s focus:The Seventh Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China disappeared collectively, and the Zhongnanhai game was fierce?Xi JinpingInfighting wins, but there are still four major crises at the 20th National Congress? The United States and China are quietly breaking the ice, and the warning signal is on. Should Taiwan be careful?
Recently, overseas heat spread “Xi JinpingRumours such as dismissal from class” and “Xi Jinping’s renunciation”, and the collective disappearance of the Seventh Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China since the end of April, have caused heated discussions among all parties. However, on May 5, the party media reported that Xi Jinping held a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee to defend his “dynamic zero” policy in a high-profile manner, but his remarks revealed murderous intent everywhere.
After all, what happened between Xi Jinping and the top CCP leaders? What other major crises is Xi Jinping facing on the eve of the 20th National Congress? At the same time, what warning signals will the subtle changes in US-China relations bring to Taiwan? Discuss with you in this episode.
Today is the weekend, but we want to talk to you about a very important topic:
Today’s theme: Xi Jinping is beleaguered Taiwan, beware of US-China variables
I believe that you should not be watching the news of the CCP media CCTV. However, in the recent CCTV news, there are unknown swords and swords.
We opened the “Leaders Video Collection” on the CCTV website, and we can see that Xi Jinping has not appeared in public since April 30. Although Xi Jinping held a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on May 5, this news The report is only “oral broadcast”, that is, the anchor reads the manuscript and matches the word card, and there is no live screen. So in other words, Xi Jinping has not appeared in public for more than a week.
If you look at Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, and other members of the Standing Committee, it is very strange that the seven most powerful people within the CCP have disappeared collectively since April 30, and there is no public activity. Although there is a “May 1st” holiday in the middle, but the epidemic situation in China is so tense, do the seven members of the Standing Committee really go on vacation to relax? Or is it because the epidemic situation in Beijing is too tense, so they hide for epidemic prevention and eat Lianhua Qingwen as food? Or is it because of the fierce contradictions and conflicts among the top executives in Beijing, so they are fighting behind closed doors?
We cannot be certain of the answer to this question at the moment, but the Politburo Standing Committee meeting on May 5 gave us important clues.
At this meeting, Xi Jinping once again emphasized the need to “adhere to dynamic clearing” and that the current epidemic is “the most severe test of prevention and control since the Wuhan defense war.” He also said, “At present, the epidemic prevention and control work is in a critical period and a strenuous stage of ‘going against the current, not advancing or retreating’. Party committees and governments at all levels must strengthen their confidence and deeply understand the complexity and arduousness of the fight against the epidemic.” .
OK, what’s the point of this passage? It was revealed that Xi Jinping also admitted that the epidemic is very difficult and severe, and the CCP has fallen into a hard battle. In particular, the phrase “boating against the current, if you don’t advance, you will retreat” is very subtle. It actually implies that Xi Jinping’s “Great Leap Forward” has been challenged and hindered, but he has to push it hard to the end, like washing his hair halfway through. If it is too late, it can only continue to be washed, otherwise the “victory against the epidemic” he claimed in the Wuhan defense war will be broken and all previous efforts will be lost.
However, there is another very subtle sentence, that is, “Party committees and governments at all levels must strengthen their confidence and deeply understand the complexity and arduousness of the fight against the epidemic.” Well, the key is here. Xi Jinping wants party committees and governments at all levels to understand that the fight against the epidemic is very complicated and difficult. Is it really just because the Omicron virus is too powerful and the transmission power is too strong? Obviously not.
In fact, there is a small sentence behind this sentence, that is, Party committees and governments at all levels must “resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee.” What does this mean? Xi Jinping is criticizing some local governments for failing to follow the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee, and for doing their own thing, or for engaging in confrontation with the central government. In other words, the “complexity” and “difficulty” of the fight against the epidemic that Xi Jinping talked about actually covers the political struggle and confrontation within the CCP. That is the fundamental focus of this meeting.
Therefore, Xi Jinping made important remarks at this meeting. He said, “We must have a profound, complete and comprehensive understanding of the guidelines and policies for epidemic prevention and control determined by the Party Central Committee, resolutely overcome problems such as insufficient understanding, insufficient preparation, and insufficient work, and resolutely overcome contempt, lack of work, etc. It doesn’t matter, self-righteousness, etc.” These words are obviously criticizing the local officials who go against him or don’t obey his commands.
It’s just that he can’t clearly say that someone in the party doesn’t listen to him, so the party leader will be very shameless and authoritative, especially since the 20th National Congress will be held in less than half a year. At this time, he must try to maintain his authority and status. Therefore, he can only euphemistically say that these officials are under-knowledge, under-prepared and self-righteous.
Then, the climax came. Xi Jinping emphasized that we must “always keep a clear head, unswervingly adhere to the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, and resolutely fight against all words and deeds that distort, doubt, and deny my country’s anti-epidemic policies and policies.” “Party committees at all levels, governments, and all sectors of society should unify their thoughts and actions into the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee, and consciously maintain a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee in ideology, politics, and action.”
This paragraph is actually very high-profile, very forceful, and very straightforward. He clearly stated that some people in the party are doubting and denying his zero-clearing policy, and they are using various words and actions to fight and fight against him, so Xi Jinping used this speech to warn these anti-Xi factions, and at the same time asked officials at all levels to follow him, insist on clearing up, and fight against these anti-Xi factions. In other words, on the surface, this struggle is a confrontation of the anti-epidemic line, but in the bones it is already a political line confrontation and factional confrontation within the CCP.
In particular, the news report of this meeting was broadcast on CCTV’s news network for more than 5 minutes, which was even more unusual. As you know, the People’s Daily and CCTV, the CCP media, although the news is boring and ugly, these media are mainly for party members to read, and they are telling party members how the political wind in the party is going.
In addition, the length of a single piece of general TV news is mostly 1.5 to 2 minutes, but this news lasts for more than 5 minutes, which shows that the status of this news is very unusual. This conference, this news It can be said that Xi Jinping has declared another political war against the anti-Xi factions within the party, warning the party not to take advantage of the epidemic to fight against the party central committee.
Interestingly, on the same day as Xi Jinping’s meeting, Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, had just posted on Weibo, criticizing the authorities’ zero-clearing policy and continuous closure of cities, which had already caused economic difficulties and made China’s predicament worse.
But just before the news report of the meeting came out, Lao Hu secretly deleted the post. What does this show? Lao Hu is a senior mouthpiece in the system. He has received the news in advance and knows that the Party Central Committee will fight those who oppose the clearing in a high-profile manner, so he quickly changed the rudder and deleted the post. In the past, Lao Hu was known for his “holding the plate”, but this time he not only took the plate thrown by the Party Central Committee, but also swallowed it.
As we all know, Lao Hu has been the mouthpiece of the Party Central Committee’s defense for a long time, but why does he dare to publicly criticize the Party Central Committee’s zero-clearing policy this time? Who gave him the confidence? We don’t know. However, it is worth noting that a few days ago, news of attacks on Xi Jinping continued to emerge from overseas.
Others say that Xi Jinping has “cede” power and position, and Li Keqiang is in charge. In particular, Xi Jinping has not appeared since April 30, which made the news spread even more. Of course, we all know that Xi Jinping is unlikely to cede power and position. After all, he has forged too many enemies in his political struggles in the past few years. Once he loses power and position, his life is likely to be lost.
But these overseas rumors just show that the internal struggle of the top leaders of the CCP is indeed very fierce and intensifying. Therefore, the anti-Xi factions continue to use the tools of public opinion at home and abroad to launch a public opinion war against Xi Jinping and a cognitive war against him at home and abroad. Therefore, none of Xi Jinping and all the Standing Committee members of the CCP have made public appearances. It is estimated that there must have been a fierce internal struggle. In the end, Xi Jinping had the upper hand, so he came out to hold a meeting of the Standing Committee, and publicly demanded that the party should follow him in the fight for zero. go. “world crossroads》
Dilemma 1: Clearance and IntensificationInfighting in Zhongnanhai fierce fighting
However, from my point of view, although Xi Jinping seems to have the upper hand at present, in fact, he is already beleaguered and in danger.Infighting in Zhongnanhaifighting each other fiercely.
Dilemma 2: The epidemic continues to spread and Beijing cannot effectively prevent and control it
At the same time, he is currently facing a dilemma, that is, the epidemic in China continues to spread, and the Beijing authorities cannot effectively prevent and control the spread of the virus.
The epidemic and the city closure in Shanghai are not over yet, but many areas in Beijing have begun to implement partial closures, and even some subway and bus routes have been closed. The Asian Games originally scheduled to be held in Hangzhou in September this year and the World University Games in Chengdu were also urgently announced to be suspended and postponed until next year. This information actually reveals that there is a high risk of the epidemic all over China.
Also, please note that Beijing only announced a few days ago that they found that several infected people had respiratory symptoms, but the results of the nucleic acid test were still negative. Why is this happening? One possibility is that the virus has mutated enough to escape nucleic acid detection and cannot be detected; the other possibility is that the quality of the CCP’s nucleic acid detection is not good enough to effectively detect the virus.
But no matter which one it is, this shows that it is almost impossible for the CCP to detect the virus through comprehensive nucleic acid testing and completely clear it. If the epidemic continues to develop and even affects the convening of the 20th National Congress, it will be embarrassing. The CCP has always claimed that they have defeated the epidemic, defeated the virus, and demonstrated the “system advantage” of socialism, but now the virus has become a zombie, resurrected, and came back to beat the CCP. How can the party leader be re-elected?
Dilemma 3: Dynamic clearing hits the economy hard and people complain
In addition, Xi Jinping also encountered a dilemma, that is, his dynamic reset policy has severely damaged people’s livelihood and economy, resulting in widespread public grievances and frequent protests and conflicts.
In order to implement the dynamic clearing of the Party Central Committee, local governments have ordered the closure of cities and districts, but in order to clear the zero, they have not been able to lift the blockade. More frequent.
The long-term closure of cities and districts has also disrupted traffic in various places, hindered logistics and transportation, and damaged the supply chain of the manufacturing industry. These phenomena have not only hit the production of enterprises, but also hit the Chinese economy. For example, Shan Weijian, an independent director of Alibaba, criticized that the CCP’s epidemic prevention policy has caused the Chinese stock market to be the worst in 30 years, and China’s public grievances are also the highest in 30 years.
Even Li Liqun, a veteran actor from Taiwan who lives in Shanghai, had just started the lockdown and said many times that he wanted everyone to cooperate with the government in epidemic prevention. If the seal goes on, he can’t go out to work and fulfill his acting contract, and he will go bankrupt.
The latest issue of Bloomberg Businessweek also featured Xi Jinping’s zero-zero policy on its cover, saying that Xi Jinping had fallen into a “zero-zero trap” that was destroying China’s economy. In fact, we want to know that the closure of cities and districts has resulted in people not being able to go to work, raw materials cannot be circulated, parts and components cannot be supplied, enterprises cannot produce, stores cannot open, and foreign capital continues to withdraw from China, so of course China’s economy can only go from bad to worse.
So this time Xi Jinping defended his zero-clearing policy in a high-profile manner at the Politburo Standing Committee meeting, and many financial experts have warned that China’s economy is likely to usher in a catastrophic outcome. But most paradoxically, Xi Jinping has ordered that China’s economic growth this year must beat the United States in order to save face for his re-election. So this year’s Chinese economy will be another quagmire for Xi Jinping.
Dilemma 4: Misjudgment of the Russian-Ukrainian War
In addition, Xi Jinping also faces a huge dilemma overseas, that is, he misjudged the Russian-Ukrainian war, and now not only China and Russia have turned their faces, but also attracted the international community.
We talked about this on the program on May 4. Xi Jinping originally thought that Russia could easily defeat Ukraine, so he sided with Russia. But I didn’t expect Russia to be in a hard fight, and the CCP was surrounded and suppressed by the international community, criticizing the CCP for supporting Russia’s invasion, and the CCP might become the next Russia, besieged by more than 5,000 sanctions from the international community. This incident has put Beijing under a lot of pressure.
Moreover, the “Australia-UK-US Military Alliance” (AUKUS) formed by Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom has also been reported to invite Japan to join. If Japan does join this military alliance, then Japan may not only receive more advanced weapon support from the United States, but also It is possible to obtain technical support from the United Kingdom and the United States, develop nuclear submarines, and strengthen Japan’s armed forces against the CCP at sea. This is also something that the CCP is quite concerned about.
In addition, South Korea’s new President Yin Xiyue is about to take office, and Biden has also announced that he will visit South Korea at the end of May to meet Yin Xiyue, which is equivalent to an official declaration of the US-South Korea alliance, and it is also equivalent to South Korea’s past “pro-CCP” position, Turn to “pro-beauty”. At that time, the two neighbors of the CCP, Japan and South Korea, are likely to join forces with the United States to block the CCP militarily, economically and technologically. This is Xi’s fourth major dilemma.
The CCP adjusts its relations with the United States, Taiwan is careful about variables
Okay, so now you should understand why I say that Xi Jinping is actually “embarrassed” and “in crisis” right now? Of course, Xi Jinping has also seen this warning, so recently, the CCP’s diplomatic system has been sending friendly signals to the United States. Even Zhao Lijian has almost changed from a wolf warrior to a dove of peace, claiming that the people of China and the United States have friendly relations.
The Chinese side has also begun to ask Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com and other big companies listed in the United States to prepare to provide more audit information to the United States to ensure that they can continue to list. These measures all reveal that the CCP has begun to soften its attitude towards the United States, and wants to win over the United States. In particular, it hopes that the United States can cancel the high tariffs in the Trump era and help China’s export economy.
Did the US hear that? heard it. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a few days ago that cutting tariffs on China is worth considering; and U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi also stated the past two days that the U.S. side needs to seek opinions from all parties to comprehensively review the tariffs on China, that is, to review the tariffs on China. Consider whether to adjust the tariff policy on China. To put it bluntly, even the United States has begun to send some kind of friendly signals to China.
However, the U.S.-China relationship seems to be starting to break the ice and warm up, right? At this time, Taiwan should be extra careful. We know that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi originally planned to visit Japan and Taiwan a month ago, but just one day before her departure, Pelosi announced that she was diagnosed and the entire trip was cancelled.
Also, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken was supposed to deliver an important speech on May 5, to announce that the CCP is the largest geopolitical rival of the United States, but it also happened that, just the day before the speech, Blinken also said that he was “diagnosed” , the speech was postponed.
Zhao Lijian also publicly shouted: “We wish Secretary Blinken a speedy recovery.” Well, we are not sure whether Blinken and Pelosi are “pathologically diagnosed” or “politically diagnosed”, but they both temporarily withdraw just before major activities against China and Taiwan, which is actually beneficial to the CCP measures. This is a very sensitive and very subtle political signal.
But ah, just as US-China relations are easing, the US side also announced the suspension of the Biden administration’s first arms sale to Taiwan. This arms sale amounted to US$750 million, mainly to purchase a batch of M109 self-propelled guns. The reason for the U.S. suspending arms sales is that because the U.S. wants to provide a large number of weapons to Ukraine, the factories are too late to produce, and it will be postponed until after 2026.
Moreover, the Taiwan military originally planned to purchase 12 anti-submarine helicopters from the United States, but it was later suspended. The Taiwan military said that the reason was because the purchase price was too high; however, some armament industry players revealed that the United States said that “it is not in line with asymmetric warfare.” The principle of combat power” was rejected. No matter which reason is the truth, it will affect Taiwan in the next few years to upgrade its weapons and equipment and strengthen its defense capabilities.
Did you see it? On the one hand, US-China relations are breaking the ice and picking up, on the other hand, US-Taiwan arms sales have been suspended. Is this ebb and flow a coincidence? Or is the triangular relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan undergoing new changes? Let’s not make too many guesses here. However, although the CCP is currently facing a dilemma on all sides, Taiwan must also be extra vigilant of this unusual political signal, and pay extra attention to the possible variables that the evolution of U.S.-China relations will bring to Taiwan.
Finally, let’s say once again that Xi Jinping’s administration is currently facing several major dilemmas:
Dilemma 1: The zero-clearing policy intensified the infighting in Zhongnanhai, and the fighting was fierce.
Dilemma 2: The epidemic continues to spread, and Beijing cannot effectively prevent and control it.
Dilemma 3: The dynamic reset has severely damaged the people’s livelihood and economy, and people’s grievances are everywhere, and there are frequent conflicts between the government and the people.
Dilemma 4: Beijing misjudged the Russian-Ukrainian war, which not only turned against China and Russia, but also attracted international containment.
Well, because the U.S. stock market has dropped by more than 1,000 points in the past two days, the photographer said that he was in a bad mood and was going to walk on Wall Street to protest. That’s it for today. Don’t forget to subscribe, leave a message, like and forward it to more friends. Thanks for watching, see you next time.
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Feeling cold in spring
Thousands of clouds and fog
The sunset fades away, the east wind
Xingzhu Bique Flying Ice Mirror
The ancient moon and today’s dust shines on the cold pine
Tang Hao
Responsible editor: Li Hao #