Researcher Park Seok-joong (right) is talking to Kim Tae-eun, an in-house announcer, on the topic of ‘global investment strategy’ at a Jaetech concert on the 2nd. [사진 제공 = 신한금융투자]
At the ‘2022 Finance Concert with Maekyung’, a finance expert at Shinhan Financial Investments advised that investors should split and buy companies that can overcome the decline in earnings near the lowest point and companies whose stock prices have fallen sharply compared to earnings, as a further decline in stock prices is inevitable in the second half of this year. . It also advised that an asset allocation strategy for dollars and long-term US bonds is necessary.
On the 2nd, Shinhan Financial Investment gave a YouTube lecture on the subject of ‘Global Investment Strategy for Seohak Ants in the Market of Volatility’ at the Jaetech Concert hosted by the Maeil Business Newspaper and sponsored by the Korea Financial Investment Association. At the Jaetech concert that day, Park Seok-joong, a researcher at Shinhan Financial Investment’s investment strategy department, came out and explained the outlook and investment strategy of the global securities market in the second half of the year.
Although it is not certain whether a recession will actually occur, Park predicted that stock prices will continue to decline in the third quarter. “As the leading indicator, the stock price, has fallen, the consumer and business sentiment indexes, which are the lagging indicators, are also collapsing,” he said.
Moreover, the stock price is expected to decline even more significantly in the third quarter as the market is increasingly optimistic that a recession is coming. “The bear market trend continued for a year before and after six months of the economic downturn,” Park said. However, it is expected that the economic downturn will not be serious. “Severe economic downturn accompanied serious systemic risks such as the subprime mortgage crisis in the past,” said Park.
Considering the possibility of a shallow economic downturn, it is correct to view the current stock price as not bottoming, Park analyzed. “The answer to the question of whether stocks are cheap right now is that there is not enough adjustment,” he said. “The stock price is determined by two factors: corporate performance and valuation.”
Under the assumption that a recession is coming, the US Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index is expected to fall to 3400 and the KOSPI to fall to 2100-2200. Researcher Park emphasized, “We estimate that an 8 to 12% correction is reasonable under the judgment that it is not a serious recession. At the lowest point in the stock price, it is advised to split and buy companies that have strong fundamentals that can overcome bad earnings and companies whose stock price has fallen sharply relative to their earnings.
He also emphasized the need to allocate assets to dollars, long-term US bonds, and US and Chinese stocks amid growing uncertainty.
In the case of the dollar, it is burdensome to recommend a buy given that it has risen a lot, but he suggested that it is better to buy it with a goal of two years in mind with the possibility of an economic downturn. If you buy the dollar in installments over a long period of time, you can buy it at an average price, which will reduce investment losses. He also advised that long-term U.S. bond bonds will become a haven in the economic downturn in the second half of the year within the range of stabilizing prices. Although the risk of further decline is relatively low, he stressed the need to increase investment in US and Chinese stock indexes, which will not be excluded when the economy recovers in the future.
When asked which stocks it is good to buy right now, he answered that it was solar-related stocks. Researcher Park said, “The price of polysilicon, the basic asset of the solar power industry, is falling, but global demand is rising.” explained that
Growth stocks with poor cash flow were selected as stocks that should be sold immediately. Researcher Park said, “In a situation where prices and interest rates are unlikely to fall easily, the financial market becomes very sensitive to a company’s ability to generate cash. We have to look back,” he said.
[김제관 기자]
[ⓒ 매일경제 & mk.co.kr, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]