Data Reveals Why Democrats Stayed Home in 2024 – And It’s Not What Progressives Think
(Image: People filling out ballots in Concord, New Hampshire, November 5, 2024. Credit: Joseph prezioso / AFP via Getty Images)
A new analysis of voter data challenges the narrative that a lack of progressive policies kept democratic voters home in the 2024 election, suggesting a more nuanced – and potentially unsettling – reality for the left.
As Democrats dissect the reasons behind their 2024 defeat,a central debate rages: did the party loose ground by being too progressive,or not progressive enough? Was the loss a failure to win over undecided voters,or a failure to mobilize the base?
Conventional wisdom often falls along factional lines. center-left analysts, like Nate Cohn and David Shor, argue Democrats need to broaden their appeal by moderating their stances and focusing on core economic issues. They believe progressive messaging alienated potential voters.
Conversely, progressives, including The Nation’s Waleed Shahid and Kali Holloway, contend that Trump’s victory stemmed from Democratic voter apathy. They argue the party failed to inspire its base, leading to widespread abstention. As Holloway powerfully stated, “The people who really decided the 2024 election are the ones who didn’t vote at all.” Their solution? A bolder, more progressive platform to reignite enthusiasm.
But who is right? The answer, as often is the case, is complex. now, fresh data from the Cooperative Election Study (CES) – a robust survey of 60,000 respondents – offers a crucial new perspective. This large sample size allows for detailed comparisons within the US electorate, providing a clearer picture of voter behavior and attitudes.
The Democratic Non-Voter Puzzle
Initial findings confirm a key point for progressives: a plurality of those who didn’t vote in 2024 were, actually, Democrats, as recently demonstrated by political scientist Jake Grumbach and his colleagues.
However, the CES data throws a wrench into the progressive narrative. While it’s true more
