North Carolina state legislators drew a congressional map seeking to elect 11 Republicans and three Democrats, but the resulting 11-3 split instead favors Democrats as a blue wave washed through the midterms.
Republicans entered the redistricting cycle in 2025 expecting to cement their control over the House. The party redrew maps across seven states, assuming a standard midterm wave would strike evenly nationwide. Instead, Democrats won the popular vote by the largest margin in 50 years, completely overwhelming the intended partisan advantage.
The Economist reported that Democratic gains concentrated heavily in Hispanic areas that swung toward Donald Trump between 2020 and 2024, alongside black populations across the South. Close analysis of seat-by-seat tallies and maps from 2024 shows that Republican gerrymandering gains yielded a minuscule net advantage nationwide.
North Carolina’s first district narrowly elected a Democrat to Congress in 2024 even though Trump won it by three percentage points. For the 2026 midterms, Republican lawmakers shifted competitive areas like Wilson County into the neighboring third district while pulling in coastal Trump-leaning areas. Under these new boundaries, Trump would have won the first district by 12 points instead of three.
Statewide, Trump carried 11 of the state’s 14 congressional districts in 2024 by margins of 10 to 20 points. However, the blue wave pushed Democrats to win the House vote by 15 points statewide, allowing them to win eight of the 11 districts where Mr Trump led.
Republicans in Texas set up a similar trap by creating six heavily Hispanic districts that swung for Mr Trump in 2024. Cartographers incorporated enough conservative voting precincts into the 9th district around Houston that the newly configured seat would have favored Mr Trump by a 20-point margin. Democrat Leticia Gutierrez won it by 15 anyway.
Democratic incumbents who were targeted using revised boundaries in Alabama and Florida managed to survive, prevailing within constituencies that Mr Trump otherwise would have carried by margins reaching 18 points. Redistricting ultimately secured only about three net seats for Republicans nationwide. The party avoided an even worse outcome only because Republican-controlled state legislatures in Indiana and South Carolina refused to execute proposed map redraws.
These broken maps will wield only modest influence over the next two years. Even if redistricting had delivered eight net seats to Republicans as anticipated, Democrats would still hold a commanding 254-181 House majority.
The boundaries will face their true test during an election cycle where the national popular vote runs close enough for district lines to dictate House control, which could easily occur in 2028.
