Household consumption would only have increased by +2.2% in Q4 2022, instead of +7.9% during the same period of the previous year. In question, the deceleration of the real income of the households, attributable to the fall of the incomes of agricultural activity and to the blaze of the prices, explains the HCP in its recent note of economic situation.
The recourse of households to indebtedness for the financing of consumption would have intensified, in particular during the months of October and November 2022, with an increase in the flow of consumer loans of more than double, compared to the same period. of 2021. And this, despite a slight increase in interest rates.
As for general government consumption, it would have firmed up by 4.7%, contributing 0.9 points to overall GDP growth, in line with the strengthening of operating expenditure.
Business investment is expected to have slowed slightly in Q4 2022, following an upward turnaround a quarter earlier. The prospects of a slowdown in foreign demand and the weakness of real estate activity would have weighed on the spending of companies, which would have adopted a more cautious inventory behavior, following the ample recovery movement recorded in the third quarter.
By product, the slowdown in investment appears to have been more evident in the construction sector, while that of industrial products appears to have improved in a context of a 29% increase in the flow of credits allocated to equipment during October and November 2022.
Overall, gross capital formation would have increased by 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, following rising by 23.5% during the same period of 2021.
